The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% of Prometheus Macro Substack here: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe?coupon=a60c1c9f Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities. Aahan breaks down a concerning divergence in the economy: while GDP and spending are being propped up by a surge in AI CapEx and top-heavy consumption, the underlying labor market is weakening. He explains the "circularity" problem of AI investment—eventually, CapEx must turn into consumption, which requires wage growth that is currently stalling. Later in the conversation, Aahan challenges core macro beliefs, presenting data on why long-term economic forecasting and tracking "rates of change" generate negligible or negative alpha. He also details his current positioning, including being short homebuilders, long French bonds against Japanese JGBs, and his "Crisis Protection" portfolio. Recorded on November 25, 2025. Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Avsnitt(248)

Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang

Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-mat...

4 Mars 1h 1min

How Legendary Resource Investor Rick Rule is Investing for a 10-Year Bull Market

How Legendary Resource Investor Rick Rule is Investing for a 10-Year Bull Market

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_...

1 Mars 1h 10min

“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman on Currency Devaluation, Artificial Intelligence, Kevin Warsh Nomination, & More

“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman on Currency Devaluation, Artificial Intelligence, Kevin Warsh Nomination, & More

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_...

15 Feb 59min

The “Climax Top” In Gold & Silver | Milton Berg, Turning Point Master, on Precious Metals, Bitcoin, and Disturbing December Warning In Stocks

The “Climax Top” In Gold & Silver | Milton Berg, Turning Point Master, on Precious Metals, Bitcoin, and Disturbing December Warning In Stocks

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Recorded in February 6th 2026, technical analyst Milton Berg returns to discuss his market outlook after correctly predictin...

10 Feb 2h 17min

Why Carson Block Won’t Short AI Names Until the IPOs Begin & Muddy Waters’ Pivot to Long Resources Stocks & S&P 500 Momentum

Why Carson Block Won’t Short AI Names Until the IPOs Begin & Muddy Waters’ Pivot to Long Resources Stocks & S&P 500 Momentum

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_...

4 Feb 1h 6min

Why Silver Is Flowing East | Alex Campbell on Solar, Scarcity, and the Six-Sigma Silver Crash (Plus: SaaS & AI)

Why Silver Is Flowing East | Alex Campbell on Solar, Scarcity, and the Six-Sigma Silver Crash (Plus: SaaS & AI)

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_...

3 Feb 1h 36min

Is the Age of Reckless Lending Coming To An End? | Oaktree’s Raghav Khanna on Private Credit, Software, and How Oaktree Correctly Saw First Brands' Red Flags

Is the Age of Reckless Lending Coming To An End? | Oaktree’s Raghav Khanna on Private Credit, Software, and How Oaktree Correctly Saw First Brands' Red Flags

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-mat...

1 Feb 1h

Trump’s Hidden Mortgage Stimulus from Fannie & Freddie | Joseph Wang on GSEs, Kevin Warsh, Powell, and Dollar Hedging

Trump’s Hidden Mortgage Stimulus from Fannie & Freddie | Joseph Wang on GSEs, Kevin Warsh, Powell, and Dollar Hedging

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_...

31 Jan 50min

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