EMD069 - Macro Context: Central Banks, China, Inflation

EMD069 - Macro Context: Central Banks, China, Inflation

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, December 3, 2025 — Macro Context. The big picture driving energy: Central banks, China slowdown, inflation. **FED: RATE CUT ODDS HIGH** 87% odds for December Fed rate cut. FOMC Dec 9-10. Goldman sees cuts Dec, Mar, Jun 2026. Lower rates boost economic activity and energy demand. Core PCE at 2.91%. **ECB: ON HOLD** Rates unchanged Oct 2025. Inflation 2.0% target, Eurozone GDP 0.9%. Energy prices dragged forecasts lower. **CHINA: SLOWING DEMAND** GDP: BBVA 5%, UBS 4.0%, Rhodium 3-4.5% with stimulus. Oil demand sluggish. LNG imports down, domestic gas up. Electricity +5-6.5%, renewables absorbing growth. **INFLATION HEADWINDS** US CPI 3.0% Sep, energy +1.5% gasoline. Global inflation 4.5% 2025. Tariffs push core higher H2 2025. **ENERGY IMPLICATIONS** Fed easing supports demand, China weakness caps oil. OPEC+ fights oversupply. Natural gas firm: LNG, AI power demand. **FINAL WORD** Macro divergence: US easing, Europe steady, China slowing. Energy trades data: Crude bearish, nat gas bullish. Inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. Thursday: EIA Inventories. This is Energy Markets Daily.

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Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Juli 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Juli 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Juni 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Juni 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Juni 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Juni 2min

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