Energy Markets Daily11 Dec 2025

EMD075 - OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, December 11, 2025 — OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. OPEC just released its December report. Here's what you need to know. **CRUDE OIL PRICES** WTI at $57.80, down from $58.44 yesterday. Brent at $62.59. Both under pressure. **OPEC'S DEMAND OUTLOOK** OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.45 million barrels per day — down 90,000 bpd from last month's 1.54 million bpd. This is the fifth consecutive monthly downward revision since August. China is the main driver of the cuts. Bearish Q3 data forced the adjustment. Compare this to IEA at 860,000 bpd and EIA at 920,000 bpd — OPEC still the most bullish but converging lower. **NON-OPEC SUPPLY** OPEC kept non-OPEC+ supply growth unchanged at 1.23 million bpd for 2024 and 1.11 million bpd for 2025. Supply keeps coming. **WHAT IT MEANS** OPEC is finally acknowledging reality. Demand growth is slowing. China is weak. Supply is abundant. The bearish case for crude is being validated by OPEC itself. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** $4.61, up 0.84%. January futures at $4.574. Total US demand including exports expected to rise to 146 Bcf/d next week from 143.8 Bcf/d. Structural bull case intact. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **FINAL WORD** OPEC cuts demand forecasts again. China drags. Supply abundant. Crude stays bearish. Gas stays bullish. Trade the decoupling. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Friday: Weekly Recap.

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