Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d late Feb/early Mar. RECENT OUTPUT DECLINE: National production fell 1.5% YoY Jan-May 2026 period, continuing broader downward trend from 2025 lows (reported ranges ~349,000-465,000 bbl/d). INCREMENTAL GAINS H1 2026: Government and Petroecuador efforts added 35,000+ bbl/d incremental crude production H1 2026. Major contributions from fields Sacha (~10,510 bbl/d), Auca, Lago Agrio, others. EXPORT VOLUMES: Crude oil exports 337,333 bbl/d Dec 2025 (down from 356,000 in 2024). Earlier periods showed exports representing large share production (historically ~67% net). EXPORT VALUE/SHARE: Mineral fuels/oil ~20.9% total exports by value recent data (down ~19% YoY). Though crude/related products historically comprised ~36% Ecuador's exports. CHALLENGES/INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES: Production declines stem from aging/coroded infrastructure, frequent pipeline disruptions, underinvestment, policy factors. 2025 output described as 2-decade low in some reports. GOVERNMENT RECOVERY EFFORTS: Noboa administration pursued drilling rigs, field optimizations, multi-year investment plan. Targeting peaks above 600,000 bbl/d longer-term. Nearer-term goals >477,000 bbl/d possible by mid-2026 (including private operators). TRADING ECONOMICS FORECAST: Production expected ~445,000 bbl/d by end Q2 2026. Trending toward ~490,000 bbl/d 2027, ~530,000 bbl/d 2028 per econometric models. MARKET/EXPORT RISKS: Competition from rising Venezuelan heavy crude output could pressure demand/prices Ecuador's key export grades (e.g., Napo). Spot market sales emphasized in prior strategies. BROADER ENERGY/EXPORT CONTEXT: Oil remains core export/fiscal contributor. Non-oil exports (shrimp/fish) grown in importance. IEA notes historical net crude export trends/energy shares. BOTTOM LINE: Ecuador mid-sized crude producer facing infrastructure challenges/policy headwinds. Recent government efforts show incremental gains, recovery trajectory positive but gradual. Export competition from Venezuela and regional dynamics remain key risks.