EMD090 - New Year's Day: 2026 Positioning

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 1, 2026 — New Year's Day. Happy New Year. Markets are closed today. A quick note to kick off 2026. **WHERE WE STAND** WTI closed 2025 near $57, down approximately 20% for the year. Brent near $61, down around 17-19%. Crude oil's worst year since 2020. Natural gas closed near $3.91, up over 50% from 2025 lows. Our decoupling thesis — short crude, long gas — was fully validated. **2026 POSITIONING** We enter the new year with clear conviction. Crude bearish — EIA projects WTI averaging $50 for 2026, Brent $55. Global inventories continue building. Non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 1 million bpd. OPEC+ is trapped. Natural gas bullish — EIA projects $4.01 average for 2026. Goldman targeting $4.50 for summer. 2026-2028 represents the largest LNG capacity expansion in history. Data center demand from AI provides structural tailwind. **THE THESIS CONTINUES** Trade the decoupling. Short crude on oversupply. Long gas on LNG demand and structural tightness. Trade the data. Not the headlines. **MARKET HOURS** CME Globex reopens today at 6pm CT. Cash markets resume Friday. **THE BOTTOM LINE** 2025 proved us right. 2026 is about execution. Same thesis. New year. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Happy New Year. Friday: Weekly Recap to kick off 2026.

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Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Juli 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Juli 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Juni 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Juni 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Juni 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Juni 2min