EMD090 - New Year's Day: 2026 Positioning

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 1, 2026 — New Year's Day. Happy New Year. Markets are closed today. A quick note to kick off 2026. **WHERE WE STAND** WTI closed 2025 near $57, down approximately 20% for the year. Brent near $61, down around 17-19%. Crude oil's worst year since 2020. Natural gas closed near $3.91, up over 50% from 2025 lows. Our decoupling thesis — short crude, long gas — was fully validated. **2026 POSITIONING** We enter the new year with clear conviction. Crude bearish — EIA projects WTI averaging $50 for 2026, Brent $55. Global inventories continue building. Non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 1 million bpd. OPEC+ is trapped. Natural gas bullish — EIA projects $4.01 average for 2026. Goldman targeting $4.50 for summer. 2026-2028 represents the largest LNG capacity expansion in history. Data center demand from AI provides structural tailwind. **THE THESIS CONTINUES** Trade the decoupling. Short crude on oversupply. Long gas on LNG demand and structural tightness. Trade the data. Not the headlines. **MARKET HOURS** CME Globex reopens today at 6pm CT. Cash markets resume Friday. **THE BOTTOM LINE** 2025 proved us right. 2026 is about execution. Same thesis. New year. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Happy New Year. Friday: Weekly Recap to kick off 2026.

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Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

10 Sep 2min

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 35

Monday, August 31, 2026. WEEK 35 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: August 28, 2026 $83.40 (open ~$83.67, high ~$83.78, low ~$82.25; volume ~142K). August 29, 2026 No trading data available (weekend/non-trading...

31 Aug 2min