EMD102 - Strategic Positioning: Week Four

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 19, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $59.44, up 0.4%. Brent hovering near $63. Post-geopolitical spike stabilization. Last week's Iran fears faded. Venezuela back online. Surplus thesis intact. OPEC+ stuck between defending price floors and volume strategy. Most forecasts agree on surplus conditions 2026. IEA warning of possible super-glut if OPEC+ and rivals keep adding supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent $56, WTI $52 for 2026 average. EIA same: Brent $56, WTI $52. We're trading above forecasts—mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.12, down from $3.16 Friday. Storage at 3,185 Bcf, 106 Bcf above 5-year average. Draw last week only 71 Bcf vs 146 Bcf 5-year average—warm weather killed demand. Europe storage 57-58% full vs 70% seasonal norm—bullish US LNG exports. Cold snap hitting now through Jan 20. This is the buy zone. Weather dips are entries, not exits. **CATALYST WATCH:** MLK Day today—markets closed. IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Status Jan 22. Cold snap Jan 18-20 peak. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude range-bound, surplus looms. Gas weather dip loaded. Decoupling continues. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.

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Geopolitical Tensions Rising

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8 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Juli 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Juli 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Juni 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Juni 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Juni 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Juni 2min