Strategic Positioning: Don't Chase the Bounce

Strategic Positioning: Don't Chase the Bounce

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, February 4, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI bounced to $63.59 yesterday, up 0.6% after Monday's 5% crash. Bouncing off the zero Fibonacci level around $61.21. OPEC+ confirmed production pause through March. Saudi Arabia at 10.1M bpd, Russia at 9.57M bpd. 1.65M bpd voluntary cuts remain. They're trapped. US ramping Iran sanctions. Eight entities and nine vessels sanctioned Jan 23. Iranian drone shot down near US carrier in Arabian Sea. Tensions rising. Our position unchanged. This bounce is noise. $63-64 is resistance. Short rallies. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub at $3.34, up 0.73%. Milder temps through mid-Feb pulling prices back. Storage ending winter at 2,000 Bcf, 9% above 5-year average. Output hit 111.6 bcfd. LNG exports near record. Our position: $3.30-$3.50 is the accumulation zone. Weather pulled us back. Gift. Add here. THE DECOUPLING: Crude trapped by oversupply. Gas supported by LNG ramp. Short crude rallies, add gas on dips. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Juli 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Juli 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Juli 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Juni 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Juni 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Juni 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Juni 2min

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