2026 YTD Recap: Six Weeks, One Thesis Confirmed

2026 YTD Recap: Six Weeks, One Thesis Confirmed

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Bonus Episode: 2026 Year-to-Date Recap. SIX WEEKS IN. 25 EPISODES. ONE THESIS CONFIRMED. THE DECOUPLING THESIS: From day one of 2026, we called it. Bearish crude, bullish natural gas. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Six weeks later, the data confirms everything. CRUDE OIL JOURNEY: - Week 1: WTI opened $57.41. Brent $60.85. Digesting 2025's 20% crash. - Week 2: OPEC+ Jan 4 freeze delivered exactly as predicted. 1.65M bpd cuts locked. - Week 3: WTI spiked to $62 on Iran tensions. We called it a sell. Collapsed to $59.22. - Week 4: IEA confirmed 3.84M bpd surplus. WTI crashed to $59.33. - Week 5: Geographic features week. Pre-recorded. - Week 6: WTI CRASHED 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. $63-64 resistance held. Gasoline inventories 257.9M — highest since June 2020. EIA FORECAST: $52 average for 2026. Current price 17% premium. NATURAL GAS JOURNEY: - Week 1: $3.44, down 5% on warm weather. - Week 4: EXPLODED 70% on brutal cold snap. Highest since 2022. - Week 6: $3.34-$3.46. Storage draw 379 Bcf. LNG 18.3 bcfd near record. EIA FORECAST: $3.50 avg 2026, $4.60 for 2027. THE SCORECARD: ✅ OPEC+ freeze: CORRECT ✅ Crude surplus: CONFIRMED ✅ Gas buy on dips: EXECUTED (70% spike) ✅ $63-64 resistance: HELD ✅ Decoupling thesis: CONFIRMED Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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 Project Freedom Live, Clashes Reported, Crude at Inflection Point

Project Freedom Live, Clashes Reported, Crude at Inflection Point

Tuesday, May 5, 2026. WTI June futures $101.94, intraday $102.17 (+0.23%), continuous contract $104.34. Prediction markets: 61¢ for $102+. Resistance $102-103, support $100/$98/$95. Project Freedom la...

5 Maj 2min

Week 19 Opens: Trump's Project Freedom and the Strait Gambit

Week 19 Opens: Trump's Project Freedom and the Strait Gambit

Monday, May 4, 2026. BREAKING: Trump announces "Project Freedom" — US begins escorting neutral ships from Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. Iran protests, calls it ceasefire violation. Trump signals "...

4 Maj 2min

Geographic Spotlight: China — The World's Largest Energy Consumer and Geopolitical Wildcard

Geographic Spotlight: China — The World's Largest Energy Consumer and Geopolitical Wildcard

Friday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: China. World's largest energy consumer: 14M bpd oil, 600 Bcm/yr gas. Imports 10M bpd, 45% from Middle East including Iran. Hormuz blockade threatens energ...

1 Maj 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Norway — Europe's Energy Lifeline in a Blockaded World

Geographic Spotlight: Norway — Europe's Energy Lifeline in a Blockaded World

Thursday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Norway. World's 2nd-largest crude exporter (1.7M bpd), 3rd-largest gas exporter (120 Bcm/yr). Supplies 25% of Europe's natural gas. NATO ally, EEA membe...

30 Apr 2min

Crude Oil Explosion: WTI Spikes to $107.11 on Extended Blockade Commitment

Crude Oil Explosion: WTI Spikes to $107.11 on Extended Blockade Commitment

Wednesday, April 29, 2026. WTI closes $107.11 (+7.19% or +$7.18), open $99.41, high $107.65. Trump rejects Iran deal, prepares extended blockade. Henry Hub $2.64 (-1.92%), down 8.58% monthly. EIA: com...

29 Apr 3min

Trump Rejects Iran Deal, Crude Holds $97

Trump Rejects Iran Deal, Crude Holds $97

Tuesday, April 28, 2026. WTI $97.38 (+1.05%), range $96.26-$97.55. Inverted head and shoulders intact, buyers control. Trump rejects Iran proposal, maintains blockade. Downside risk $70-75 if deal acc...

28 Apr 3min

Iran Offers Strait Reopening for Blockade Lift

Iran Offers Strait Reopening for Blockade Lift

Monday, April 27, 2026. BREAKING: Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz + extend ceasefire indefinitely if US lifts blockade. Trump convening Situation Room. WTI $95-$96, Brent $105+. Henry Hub $2.57...

27 Apr 2min

Crude Surges to $97 on Strait Closure, Gas Capitulates on Shoulder Season

Crude Surges to $97 on Strait Closure, Gas Capitulates on Shoulder Season

Friday, April 24, 2026. WTI opens $92, surges to $97 (+$7.74 week). Inverted head and shoulders bullish setup. Strait of Hormuz near-zero traffic. Iran's "Tehran Tollbooth" demands $2M per vessel. Hen...

24 Apr 3min

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