2026 YTD Recap: Six Weeks, One Thesis Confirmed

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Bonus Episode: 2026 Year-to-Date Recap. SIX WEEKS IN. 25 EPISODES. ONE THESIS CONFIRMED. THE DECOUPLING THESIS: From day one of 2026, we called it. Bearish crude, bullish natural gas. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Six weeks later, the data confirms everything. CRUDE OIL JOURNEY: - Week 1: WTI opened $57.41. Brent $60.85. Digesting 2025's 20% crash. - Week 2: OPEC+ Jan 4 freeze delivered exactly as predicted. 1.65M bpd cuts locked. - Week 3: WTI spiked to $62 on Iran tensions. We called it a sell. Collapsed to $59.22. - Week 4: IEA confirmed 3.84M bpd surplus. WTI crashed to $59.33. - Week 5: Geographic features week. Pre-recorded. - Week 6: WTI CRASHED 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. $63-64 resistance held. Gasoline inventories 257.9M — highest since June 2020. EIA FORECAST: $52 average for 2026. Current price 17% premium. NATURAL GAS JOURNEY: - Week 1: $3.44, down 5% on warm weather. - Week 4: EXPLODED 70% on brutal cold snap. Highest since 2022. - Week 6: $3.34-$3.46. Storage draw 379 Bcf. LNG 18.3 bcfd near record. EIA FORECAST: $3.50 avg 2026, $4.60 for 2027. THE SCORECARD: ✅ OPEC+ freeze: CORRECT ✅ Crude surplus: CONFIRMED ✅ Gas buy on dips: EXECUTED (70% spike) ✅ $63-64 resistance: HELD ✅ Decoupling thesis: CONFIRMED Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Avsnitt(261)

Geographic Feature: Belarus

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 field...

11 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

10 Sep 2min

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min