Strategic Positioning: Short the Rally

Strategic Positioning: Short the Rally

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, February 11, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI at $64.36. US-Iran tensions driving the rally. Reports the US may intercept Iranian tankers. Could deploy another carrier strike group if nuclear talks collapse. OPEC production UP 203,000 bpd to 26.57M bpd. Libya and Nigeria added barrels. OUR READ: This Iran rally is noise. Geopolitical premiums fade. We saw this in Week 3. Same playbook. Short the rally. EIA forecasts $52 average. Current price 23% premium. Mean reversion coming. OUR POSITION: Any push toward $65 is an exit. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub at $3.13. Bouncing off extreme oversold. EIA February STEO raised 2026 forecast to $4.30/MMBtu. Storage ending withdrawal season below 1.9 Tcf — 8% below forecasts. Bullish. OUR POSITION: Accumulate $3.00-$3.25. Target $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Avsnitt(261)

Geographic Feature: Belarus

Geographic Feature: Belarus

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 field...

11 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

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Geopolitical Premium Persists

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

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Technicals: Week 36

Technicals: Week 36

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Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min

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