Will the Fed Run Out of Excuses as the Weather Warms?

* Government's first look at Q1 GDP
* There was a lot of optimism around Q1 with expectations above 3%
* Actual GDP was 1/5 of expectations at.2%
* The rest of the story of Q1 GDP:
* The deflator this time was negative - meaning that prices dropped by .1%
* The last time the deflator was negative was 2009 Q2; still in the Great Recession
* The previous occurrence of a negative deflator was in 1949
* I believe the true rate of inflation is higher than -.1%
* Inventory build continued into Q1 - businesses continue to believe the myth of the recovery
* Inventory to sales ratio are the highest they have been since the Great Recession
* They are still blaming poor economic performance on the weather. It is always cold in the winter; why is bad weather always a surprise?
* The Fed just released their official statement on interest rate policy
* They removed language from statement indicating it is unlikely that rates will rise
* Continuing give the illusion that they are progressing toward a point when they will raise interest rates
* The Fed went out of its way to dismiss all the bad economic news we got in Q1
* The dollar just had its biggest 2-day decline in 6 years
* The Fed came out and put a smiley face on the whole thing and the dollar recovered somewhat
* The Fed is never going to confess that they are worried; that's not their job
* What evidence is there that things will improve in Q2?
* Cheap gas windfall is over; oil prices have risen every week in the past month
* Early April economic data is negative
* An economy based on spending is a bubble; production grows an economy
* Consumers have lots of debt, but they don't have good jobs
* Decline in the dollar signals that the markets are already sensing this
* The Fed feels that economic growth will recover in Q2 & Q3
* They also said they need to see additional strength in the labor market
* Business are making foolish decisions because they believe the Fed
* As the economy disappoints, the labor market will continue to deteriorate
* The Fed can't raise interest rates and they are headed ror QE4
* We need more and more stimulus because we've built up a resistance
* The real crisis will be a dollar crisis
* When the economy heads south and the Fed has to do QE 4, the Fed will lose a lot of credibility
* Janet Yellen will not be able to deliver on her promise to shrink the balance sheet by the end of the decade
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