Retailers May Still Be In The Red After Black Friday – Ep. 120

Retailers May Still Be In The Red After Black Friday – Ep. 120


* Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day, one day before Black Friday
* The one day of the year where Americans make their annual pilgrimmage there they stampede to the nearest mall to buy stuff they really don'[t need and can't afford
* It's almost like a black and blue weekend
* I believe that this will be a pretty weak holiday weekend; by the time we get the sales numbers next week, it's going to be pretty dismal
* The news that brought the euro down this morning was rhetoric coming from Mario Draghi , head of the ECB
* He's talking about expanding the QE program to a 2-tiered system
* Why is Draghi so determined to talk down the euro and talk up inflation?
* He is in pursuit of Keynesian economics' holy grail - inflation
* If only we can succeed in getting prices to go up faster then we would have economic growth and prosperity
* Believing that a rising cost of living is the secret sauce of economic growth
* If you search the internet, you see that no one is critical of this
* If rising prices are so important, why not just raise the VAT?
* You could obtain the exact amount of inflation desired if the real goal is to rais prices
* But that's not really the goal, because they would just raise the VAT
* The real goal is to wipe out government debt and to mitigate the effects of wage hikes imposed by the government
* Academia and the press all give them a pass on the idea that rising prices create prosperity
* The truth is the reverse: prosperity comes from reducing costs
* As things get cheaper, more people can afford them - I use the example of cell phones
* Now even poor people can afford a cell phone
* Falling prices lift standards of living and falling prices result from a productive economy
* Inflation results from government interference and it doesn't make things better
* Let's go over the economic data this week
* It's been a mixed bag
* On Monday we did get the manufacturing PMI number, expected to come in at 54.5 which would have been an improvement
* Instead, we got 52.6, the lowest number in 2 years
* I've been talking about this for a long time on this podcast - the manufacturing recession is already here
* The mainstream media dismisses this because manufacturing is so small it doesn't really matter
* That statement says so much
* A downturn in manufacturing will preclude a downturn in the service sector
* We also got existing home sales that came out on Monday - they were below estimates
* There's plenty of evidence that the housing market has already rolled over, and if the Fed were to raise interest rates, it would push it even further down that hill.
* The big number that came out yesterday was the revision to Q3 GDP
* Initially the government reported that the GDP was up 1.5%
* Everybody expected an upward revision and that's exactly what we got - a revision to 2.1
* The problem was, the number was due to a big build in inventory
* I have been talking about this for months on this podcast; we have huge amounts of unsold inventory
* Businesses have been more optimistic than they should have been based on the Fed's recovery rhetoric
* This mistake shows up as a positive in the GDP
* The other big factor is that the government assumes that inflation is just 1.3%
* I don't believe that for a second
* Health insurance alone is costing the average American's cost of living more than 2%
* Today the Atlanta Fed just reduced their Q4 GDP estimate from 2.3% down to 1.8%
* What the third quarter giveth, the fourth quarter taketh away
* Buried in that GDP report are some other bad numbers
* There was a 4.7% decline in corporate profits for the quarter - the biggest decli... Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 * Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos * Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession * Winding down of QE triggering market instability * Economic data still pointing to weakness * Russia raised interest rates to 17% * Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis * Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt * Euro and Yen rallying * This morning gold was up, down, ended up * Volatility indicates changing trends * A recession in the U.S. means QE4 Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Dec 201424min

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35 * Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend * The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support. * The gold market had its best week relative to equities. * Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year. * Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions. * The dollar was mixed at Friday close. * The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements. * The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary. * QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices. * The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles. Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Dec 201430min

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Dec 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Dec 201423min

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep.32 * In 2014 Bitcoin was the worst-performing financial asset * Spending bitcoins triggers a taxable event * Spending or selling at a loss also reflects on your taxes * This holiday season, harvest tax losses while shopping * Write-off could exceed value of gift * You can also buy bitcoins back at a savings from original cost if you wait 30 days * Buy Gold and Silver while harvesting tax loss Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201420min

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down * Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years * Government is spinning this as "prudent" * Buyers have very little skin in the game * If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choice Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201412min

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

* Stock market roller coaster ride this week * Chinese market plummets * Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low * The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE * Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored * Gold and Silver strong despite bad press * Gold outperforming the Russel 2000 * Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high * China reports record trade surplus Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201420min

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate? * What is the exact number of the mandate? * If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there * The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it. * How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy? * Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet. * They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Dec 201425min

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