Retailers May Still Be In The Red After Black Friday – Ep. 120

Retailers May Still Be In The Red After Black Friday – Ep. 120


* Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day, one day before Black Friday
* The one day of the year where Americans make their annual pilgrimmage there they stampede to the nearest mall to buy stuff they really don'[t need and can't afford
* It's almost like a black and blue weekend
* I believe that this will be a pretty weak holiday weekend; by the time we get the sales numbers next week, it's going to be pretty dismal
* The news that brought the euro down this morning was rhetoric coming from Mario Draghi , head of the ECB
* He's talking about expanding the QE program to a 2-tiered system
* Why is Draghi so determined to talk down the euro and talk up inflation?
* He is in pursuit of Keynesian economics' holy grail - inflation
* If only we can succeed in getting prices to go up faster then we would have economic growth and prosperity
* Believing that a rising cost of living is the secret sauce of economic growth
* If you search the internet, you see that no one is critical of this
* If rising prices are so important, why not just raise the VAT?
* You could obtain the exact amount of inflation desired if the real goal is to rais prices
* But that's not really the goal, because they would just raise the VAT
* The real goal is to wipe out government debt and to mitigate the effects of wage hikes imposed by the government
* Academia and the press all give them a pass on the idea that rising prices create prosperity
* The truth is the reverse: prosperity comes from reducing costs
* As things get cheaper, more people can afford them - I use the example of cell phones
* Now even poor people can afford a cell phone
* Falling prices lift standards of living and falling prices result from a productive economy
* Inflation results from government interference and it doesn't make things better
* Let's go over the economic data this week
* It's been a mixed bag
* On Monday we did get the manufacturing PMI number, expected to come in at 54.5 which would have been an improvement
* Instead, we got 52.6, the lowest number in 2 years
* I've been talking about this for a long time on this podcast - the manufacturing recession is already here
* The mainstream media dismisses this because manufacturing is so small it doesn't really matter
* That statement says so much
* A downturn in manufacturing will preclude a downturn in the service sector
* We also got existing home sales that came out on Monday - they were below estimates
* There's plenty of evidence that the housing market has already rolled over, and if the Fed were to raise interest rates, it would push it even further down that hill.
* The big number that came out yesterday was the revision to Q3 GDP
* Initially the government reported that the GDP was up 1.5%
* Everybody expected an upward revision and that's exactly what we got - a revision to 2.1
* The problem was, the number was due to a big build in inventory
* I have been talking about this for months on this podcast; we have huge amounts of unsold inventory
* Businesses have been more optimistic than they should have been based on the Fed's recovery rhetoric
* This mistake shows up as a positive in the GDP
* The other big factor is that the government assumes that inflation is just 1.3%
* I don't believe that for a second
* Health insurance alone is costing the average American's cost of living more than 2%
* Today the Atlanta Fed just reduced their Q4 GDP estimate from 2.3% down to 1.8%
* What the third quarter giveth, the fourth quarter taketh away
* Buried in that GDP report are some other bad numbers
* There was a 4.7% decline in corporate profits for the quarter - the biggest decli... Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Dec 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

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