Gold Hits $1,200 as Financials Get Hit – Ep. 139

* As I mentioned in my video blog I recorded on Friday, the jobs data that came out on Friday was just not weak enough for the market
* So the markets' carnage continues, because everybody still believes the Federal Reserve may in fact be raising interest rates - the only question is, will it be in March, will it be in June, the markets don't know and so they continue to be under pressure
* At one point today, the Dow Jones was down nearly 400 points
* The NASDAQ was down about another 150 intra-day
* We had one of these last hour rallies, just to keep hope alive so the Dow closed down just 177 points, the NASDAQ down 79
* At the lows today, we were within 1% of a bear market, in the NASDAQ, so technically Wall Street can pretend they are not in a bear market, maybe for a few more days
* The same thing is going to happen with the recession - everybody is saying there is no recession, but eventually they will have to admit it
* I was reading an article by an economist from one of the bigger banks, who said, there will be some more downside, maybe the NASDAQ will go down to about 3900
* But, he said, "Don't worry, it's not going to be as bad as 2000 or 2008 because the economy is in good shape and the odds of a recession are very slim."
* What would make him think the odds of a recession are slim? All the data is horrible.
* Manufacturing is already in a recession; the service sector is contracting rapidly
* It has been seven years since the last recession so we're overdue…
* The Fed is tightening, raising interest rates, as a matter of fact they've been tightening for 2 years if you understand that the "Taper Talk" was the beginning of the tightening
* Plus, we're in a bear market
* We often hear, "The market has predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"
* OK, well, the Fed has predicted zero of the last 5 recessions
* They always say there's not going to be a recession right before there's a recession, in fact, they have a history of saying there won't be a recession when we're already in a recession
* What led the carnage in the stock market was the sell-off in European banks and it was brutal, in fact these big banks are lower than their lows in the depth of the Financial Crisis
* The big one is Deutsche Bank had to come out today and re assure everybody that they did not have a solvency problem
* All the U.S. stocks hit 52-week lows: Morgan Stanley hit a 52-week low, Goldman Sachs down 4-1/2% - 52-week low, Bank of America down 5-1/4% - 52-week low
* These stocks will continue to suffer until the Fed cries Uncle, or Aunt
* The ECB can't do it, the Bank of Japan can't do it - negative rates are actually making it worse for the European banks
* There is no more stimulus coming from Europe because the stimulus is causing a bigger problem than it is supposed to cure
* I've said this many times: bankers in Europe were worried about, "Lowflation" as they see weak oil prices, so now they want to stimulate
* But whenever they stimulate, they cause the dollar to strengthen and the stronger dollar further suppresses the commodity prices, threatening more "Lowflation"
* The Bank of Japan can't do anything, in fact the yen was up again today a new 52-week high for the Japanese yen, so even though Japan has gone negative the yen is rising not just to a 52-week high, this is the highest it has been since October of 2014
* In Europe they are making the situation worse by easing
* Who's left? Janet Yellen will speak to Congress Wednesday and Thursday this week and maybe she'll throw the market a lifesaver this time instead of an anchor
* This is exactly what I have been saying would happen - the Fed would prick its own bubble with just a tiny .25 hole and the air has come gushing out
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