Record Confidence in U.S. Stocks Means Trouble Ahead – Ep. 292

Record Confidence in U.S. Stocks Means Trouble Ahead – Ep. 292

Optimism Rules the Day
Friday the 13th was not an unlucky day for the U.S. stock market; all three of the major stock market averages closing at all time record highs. Optimism is ruling the day. In fact, there was a consumer confidence number that came out today revealing confidence in the economy - the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence - and this is a measure of the belief that the U.S stock market will be higher 12 months from now than it is today. By that measure, consumers have more confidence in the U.S. stock market than they have ever had in the past. That would include where we were just before the '08 Financial Crisis and where the market was at the peak of the dot com bubble.
Complacent Investors
In fact, there are other measures of investor sentiment that have never been this high. Look at the VIX, for example, which is really a measure of risk, of investors' need to hedge their portfolios. If you look at that, the VIX is at all time record lows. Investors have never been this complacent about the U.S. stock market - ever! And all of those measures of fear, confidence, are at the lowest and highest readings, respectively, that they've ever been, even though the U.S. stock market is extremely expensive.
Not a Bubble?
The U.S. stock market has only been this expensive near the peaks of previous bubbles. But what's different about this bubble is a) it's bigger, and b) people are even more confident now that it is not a bubble. You have less fear, less anxiety and investors are more convinced that they can't lose than at any prior time, despite the fact that we actually probably have more risk now than during any of the previous bubbles. Of course, it's not just the investors who are confident. Consumer confidence is high, in fact the consumer confidence number came out much higher than expected today.
Government Inflation Numbers Real? Not.
The dollar rallied on that today. Initially, down because of the lower than expected CPI, which is seen, paradoxically as good for the dollar if there is less inflation. Somehow, the way the markets react, if there is not enough inflation, they reduce the probability of a rate hike, so the dollar sold off. The PPI that came out yesterday was a little higher than expected, so people were worried: "Oh, well, maybe there's more inflation, then the CPI comes out and it's lower than expected. Of course none of these numbers are actually real, because we all know consumer prices are rising a lot faster than these indexes purport to show.
Fed Confusing Inflation with Employment
Of course, then the Fed complains that we don't have enough inflation. In fact the Fed actually claims they don't even understand why inflation is so low; they expect it to be higher. Ironically, not because of all the money they printed, they think inflation should be higher based on how low the unemployment is. They are looking at the Phillips curve and they don't understand why we don't have more inflation when the unemployment rate is so low. They don't understand that there's no real relationship between employment and inflation. If there was, it's the opposite of what they think. When people are productively employed, and making more things, that tends to keep prices down. When people are unemployed, governments have to subsidize them by printing a lot of money and making a lot of unemployment benefits or welfare benefits, that will generally lead to higher consumer prices. If anything, they will be correlated together, not opposite.





Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1082)

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Nov 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom * Weekly jobless claims higher than expected * Fewer people in the workforce * Job openings declining * Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high? * false confidence in the economy due to oil prices * QE4 will be the mother of all QE * Gold and silver market reversal on Friday * Silver stocks up $4% * Gold stocks were up 6% Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Nov 201420min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19

Episode 19: Low-Paying Jobs And Student Debt Undermining Marriage * There are more single Americans than ever * Job quality and debt are disincentive to marriage * Government policy promotes generations of single mothers * Two out of every five mothers are single * If the economy is getting better, why is this happening? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 201414min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18

Episode 18 Synopsis * Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber admits fraud promoting Obamacare: * "They proposed it and that passed, because the American people are too stupid to understand the difference." * Administration's argument to Supreme Court about constitutionality of Exchanges claims "typo" * The average American may not be able to make decisions for others, but they know what is best for themselves Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 201420min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
uppgang-och-fall
rss-borsens-finest
svd-ledarredaktionen
rss-svart-marknad
avanzapodden
lastbilspodden
rss-dagen-med-di
fill-or-kill
bathina-en-podcast
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
24fragor
affarsvarlden
rss-den-nya-ekonomin
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
borsmorgon
bilar-med-sladd
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet