Stocks and Bonds Do Dangerous Dance – Ep. 327

Stocks and Bonds Do Dangerous Dance – Ep. 327

Volatility
The volatility is really continuing, in fact, today at one point this morning the Dow was up close to 400 points; ended up closing negative. It wasn't a big drop; about 20 points, but I think that's the biggest reversal of a gain to a loss in a little over 2 years. The broader market did worse. The S&P percentage-wise dropped about 13.5 points; the NASDAQ was down about 64 points.
Turnaround Tuesday
Of course the biggest reversal is the one we had yesterday. In fact, when I recorded my podcast on Monday I thought we'd have a big drop on Tuesday, but then I though we could also have a rally - Turnaround Tuesday. I thought we'd have a big drop in the morning and some kind of rally. That's exactly what we did, except we had an even bigger drop in the evening.
Dow Futures Loss
On Monday night, looking at how U.S. stock futures were trading in Asia, the Dow futures were down the equivalent of 1300 points. Now by the time New York markets opened, we had recouped almost all those losses. But if you look at the 5 trading days, from the high, the Dow Futures lost about 13% of their value. That just shows you how quickly the market can go down. The next time it could lose even more. That was a big move. Then we finished the day with a 500-point rally. So, lots of volatility.
Trend is Changing
I will tell you something: When you have a trend, and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility, generally, that's a sign the trend is changing. The trend has been up, obviously stocks have been trending up for years. And they've been trending up with minimal volatility. All of a sudden you see massive volatility. Does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No. It's more likely a sign the trend has come to an end. Now you're getting all this volatility as people are jockeying around for position. People are buying the dips, now they're selling the rips.
Tail Wagging the Dog
I think the close today is a very weak close. We could start selling off tonight. I think the markets closed in a very weak way and there could be a lot more downside, especially if you look at what's happening in the bond market. That is the tail that is wagging the stock market dog. Yields on bonds are now back to the highs. In fact, the yield on the 30-year is now the highest it has been all year. Higher than it was before this little crash. The yield is 3.117 on the close.

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Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Dec 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Dec 201423min

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep.32 * In 2014 Bitcoin was the worst-performing financial asset * Spending bitcoins triggers a taxable event * Spending or selling at a loss also reflects on your taxes * This holiday season, harvest tax losses while shopping * Write-off could exceed value of gift * You can also buy bitcoins back at a savings from original cost if you wait 30 days * Buy Gold and Silver while harvesting tax loss Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201420min

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down * Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years * Government is spinning this as "prudent" * Buyers have very little skin in the game * If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choice Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201412min

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

* Stock market roller coaster ride this week * Chinese market plummets * Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low * The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE * Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored * Gold and Silver strong despite bad press * Gold outperforming the Russel 2000 * Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high * China reports record trade surplus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201420min

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate? * What is the exact number of the mandate? * If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there * The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it. * How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy? * Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet. * They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Dec 201425min

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Dec 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

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