Stocks and Bonds Do Dangerous Dance – Ep. 327

Stocks and Bonds Do Dangerous Dance – Ep. 327

Volatility
The volatility is really continuing, in fact, today at one point this morning the Dow was up close to 400 points; ended up closing negative. It wasn't a big drop; about 20 points, but I think that's the biggest reversal of a gain to a loss in a little over 2 years. The broader market did worse. The S&P percentage-wise dropped about 13.5 points; the NASDAQ was down about 64 points.
Turnaround Tuesday
Of course the biggest reversal is the one we had yesterday. In fact, when I recorded my podcast on Monday I thought we'd have a big drop on Tuesday, but then I though we could also have a rally - Turnaround Tuesday. I thought we'd have a big drop in the morning and some kind of rally. That's exactly what we did, except we had an even bigger drop in the evening.
Dow Futures Loss
On Monday night, looking at how U.S. stock futures were trading in Asia, the Dow futures were down the equivalent of 1300 points. Now by the time New York markets opened, we had recouped almost all those losses. But if you look at the 5 trading days, from the high, the Dow Futures lost about 13% of their value. That just shows you how quickly the market can go down. The next time it could lose even more. That was a big move. Then we finished the day with a 500-point rally. So, lots of volatility.
Trend is Changing
I will tell you something: When you have a trend, and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility, generally, that's a sign the trend is changing. The trend has been up, obviously stocks have been trending up for years. And they've been trending up with minimal volatility. All of a sudden you see massive volatility. Does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No. It's more likely a sign the trend has come to an end. Now you're getting all this volatility as people are jockeying around for position. People are buying the dips, now they're selling the rips.
Tail Wagging the Dog
I think the close today is a very weak close. We could start selling off tonight. I think the markets closed in a very weak way and there could be a lot more downside, especially if you look at what's happening in the bond market. That is the tail that is wagging the stock market dog. Yields on bonds are now back to the highs. In fact, the yield on the 30-year is now the highest it has been all year. Higher than it was before this little crash. The yield is 3.117 on the close.

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Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

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25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Nov 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom * Weekly jobless claims higher than expected * Fewer people in the workforce * Job openings declining * Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high? * false confidence in the economy due to oil prices * QE4 will be the mother of all QE * Gold and silver market reversal on Friday * Silver stocks up $4% * Gold stocks were up 6% Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Nov 201420min

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