Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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Biden’s Supreme Court Pick Will Ignore the Constitution – Ep 782

Biden’s Supreme Court Pick Will Ignore the Constitution – Ep 782

* Democrats hate the constitution. * The constitution doesn’t need to be interpreted. * Republics protect the minority from the majority. * Founding fathers warned of the evils of democracy. * You can’t have liberty in a democracy, but you can in a republic. * The constitution was written to protect against democracy. * The government that governs best, governs least. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. Thanks https://avast.com! INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Feb 202253min

What if the World Sanctions America? – Ep 781

What if the World Sanctions America? – Ep 781

* Russian stock market loses big. * Gold’s bullish story strengthens. * Sanctions will have ramifications beyond Russian borders. * Joe Biden does a premature victory dance. Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Feb 202243min

Sanctions for Russia Mean Higher Inflation for America – Ep 780

Sanctions for Russia Mean Higher Inflation for America – Ep 780

* Bad presidents, like Joe Biden, do not deserve to be honored on Presidents Day. * George Washington was the greatest American in history. * Joe Biden avoids taking questions to avoid giving stupid answers. * Government’s solution to the energy crisis will be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. * NATO should have been disbanded with the fall of the Soviet Union. * Bitcoin leads risk assets lower, in the opposite direction of gold. * Markets are reacting more to inflation fears than concerns over Russia and Ukraine. * Buying Bitcoin is better than shorting gold. * Hex coin scam epitomizes the problems with Bitcoin. Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22 Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Feb 202250min

Recession Will Make the Inflation Problem Worse – Ep 779

Recession Will Make the Inflation Problem Worse – Ep 779

* Supply will decrease faster than demand. * Fed will fight recession with more inflation. * Democrats bribing voters with gas tax holiday. * American investors watching their wealth evaporate. * Falling Bitcoin proves it’s a poor hedge against the rising inflation. * Russia invading Ukraine is the noise. Inflation is the music. * Dry powder in cash is getting wet. * The trend is not your friend if you’re Cathie Wood. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. Thanks Tommy John. Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Feb 202256min

The Fed Is Running Out of Minutes – Ep 778

The Fed Is Running Out of Minutes – Ep 778

* Economic data blows away expectations. * Wages are a price and prices are going up because of inflation. * Keynesians can’t even follow their own playbook. * Real demand is determined by supply. * Don’t take free heroin just because you don’t want to waste it. * Fed hawks went the way of the dodo bird. * Fed policy is the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt’s Big Stick policy. One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Feb 202245min

It’s Mission Impossible for the Fed – Ep 777

It’s Mission Impossible for the Fed – Ep 777

* Value stocks becoming the new momentum stocks. * Previous momentum stocks pick up momentum in the wrong direction. * Bitcoin’s reaction to Russia Ukraine tensions prove it’s the opposite of a safe haven. * Consumer sentiment at its gloomiest in 11 years. * Worst inflation numbers since 1982. * Companies like Peloton hiding their price increases in delivery and service fees. * Government is deliberately cooking the books on the CPI. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold. Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Feb 20221h 2min

Markets Miss Important Fed Admission – Ep 776

Markets Miss Important Fed Admission – Ep 776

* Momentum stocks rally. * Gold inches higher under everyone’s radar. * Investors distracted by Bitcoin’s bear market rally. * Atlanta Fed President Bostic admits policy will be less loose, not tight. * Original CPI change was intended as a stealth way to cut social security. * Unemployment numbers don’t count people with covid. * New jobs are currently being created by statisticians, not employers. Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22 Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Feb 202255min

The Fed Will Lose an Inflation Fight – Ep 775

The Fed Will Lose an Inflation Fight – Ep 775

* Surprise earnings send Nasdaq on a roller coaster. * Companies are paying the price for not raising their prices. * Bitcoin trading above $40k, perhaps for the last time. * $10/gallon gasoline on the horizon. * Rising Euro will be problematic for the US economy. * Jobs report reveals strength in inflation, not the labor market. * Gold market shows investors are waking up to the Fed’s failing inflation fight. * Markets punish discrimination; government rewards discrimination. * Washington DC should pick a more appropriate name for their football team. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. Go to https://babbel.com and use promo code GOLD to get 3 additional months when you purchase a 3 month subscription. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

5 Feb 20221h 11min

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