Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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Sell the Rip, Don’t Buy the Dip – Ep 774

Sell the Rip, Don’t Buy the Dip – Ep 774

* The stock market is rotating, not crashing. * Weak economic data will make it harder for the Fed to tighten. * Fed may begin blaming rising oil prices on economic slowdown. * Market will assign premium to companies producing earnings and paying dividends. * Facebook abandons their cryptocurrency project, Libra. * 6 more weeks of winter is nothing compare to the crypto winter ahead. * National debt reaches $30 Trillion. * The dollar is Monopoly money held up by a giant Ponzi scheme. Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

3 Feb 202243min

The Bigger the Bubble, the Smaller the Pin – Ep 773

The Bigger the Bubble, the Smaller the Pin – Ep 773

* January could end up being the worst month ever in the stock market. * Worst is yet to come for Robinhood. * Fed’s hawkish talk pushing the dollar higher and gold lower. * Value investments continue to outperform growth investments. * Consumers are buying less, but spending more. Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Jan 202252min

No Pivot: Powell Put Expires – Ep 772

No Pivot: Powell Put Expires – Ep 772

* Jerome Powell surprises no one in FOMC meeting. * Tesla is not Microsoft. * Hedge fund sharks will smell blood on Cathie Wood. * Bullish gold news ignored by traders. * Powell confuses economic strength for an economic bubble. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31st INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

27 Jan 202246min

A Stock and Crypto Reversal, but Not a Bottom – Ep 771

A Stock and Crypto Reversal, but Not a Bottom – Ep 771

* Stocks pump on potential Powell pivot. * Fed trying to prevent its credibility and the market from imploding. * More than two thirds of Bitcoin holders are underwater on their purchase. * The gold standard didn’t fail. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Jan 202246min

Risk Assets Crash Tests Fed’s Resolve – Ep 770

Risk Assets Crash Tests Fed’s Resolve – Ep 770

* Fed’s talk pricked the mother of all bubbles. * Netflix becomes a victim of its own success. * Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund sees an entire bear market in one week. * Investors are no longer taking refuge in the US dollar. * Tether is an accident waiting to happen. * Pumpers are now conceding that Bitcoin is correlated to risk assets. * There is no basis for owning Bitcoin. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Jan 20221h 1min

The Most Obvious Crisis Almost No One Saw Coming – Ep 769

The Most Obvious Crisis Almost No One Saw Coming – Ep 769

* Stock market is in bad shape, but bond market is worse. * Silver rallies. * Any negative yield in bonds is a positive for gold. * Numbers on economy getting weaker as numbers on inflation get stronger. * Fed can’t fix an inflation induced recession with more inflationary policies. * The crash I wrote about in my 2007 book, Crashproof, is happening right now. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Jan 202240min

2022 Kicks off the Great Rotation – Ep 768

2022 Kicks off the Great Rotation – Ep 768

* Oil prices headed for record highs. * Massive rotation from growth stocks to value stocks in effect. * Investors rushing to dump Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund. * Grayscale Bitcoin Trust follows growth stocks decline. * Gold will follow oil’s breakout. * Lael Brainard should be fired, not promoted. * The Fed is saving some jobs… the unproductive ones. * Quantitative Easing has a disproportionately negative impact on minorities. Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 202255min

Fed Unveils Field of Dreams Monetary Policy – Ep 767

Fed Unveils Field of Dreams Monetary Policy – Ep 767

* Official CPI is at its worst in 39 years. * Real CPI is at its worst in history. * Investors beginning to realize that the Fed is too little too late. * Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to blame inflation on price gouging. * Democrats are laying the foundation for price controls. * Paul Tudor Jones believes Bitcoin will do poorly in 2022. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2022. One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Jan 20221h 18min

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