Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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Less Loose Will Lower Markets, Not Inflation – Ep 766

Less Loose Will Lower Markets, Not Inflation – Ep 766

* Stock market off to a bad start for first week of trading in 2022. * Fed minutes send bond markets tanking. * Investors spooked out of speculative bets and into commodities. * Inflation pressure building on producers and consumers. * Workers fall further behind as prices increase faster than wages. * Bitcoin chart looking ominous. * El Salvador is underwater on their Bitcoin bet. * Microstrategy balance sheet will soon have a big hole in it soon. * Michael Saylor talks out of both sides of his mouth about US Dollar. * NASA agrees, gold has intrinsic value. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold. Thanks Tommy John! Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Jan 20221h 8min

The Year of Living Dangerously in Review – Ep 765

The Year of Living Dangerously in Review – Ep 765

Peak speculation in 2021 lead to meme stocks, silly named crypto, NFTs, and all time record highs for: * Issuance of SPACS * Mergers & acquisitions * Corporate buy-backs * IPOs from money losing companies * IPOs from regular companies * Home loans * Trade deficit * Government borrowing in a non-recession year * Bitcoin price Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

5 Jan 20221h

2021: A Year of Peak Speculation – Ep 764

2021: A Year of Peak Speculation – Ep 764

* Everyone is talking about inflation. * Fed is re-rigging the CPI again to hide increasing inflation. * Strong economies create surpluses, not deficits. * US is importing more and exporting less. * Prices up on lumber and other commodities. * Bitcoin stole gold’s thunder in 2021. * 2021 was a great year for Bitcoin sellers, but not buyers. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 10% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Dec 202158min

Peak Inflation Is Nowhere in Sight – Ep 763

Peak Inflation Is Nowhere in Sight – Ep 763

* Santa Claus rally comes early. * Even Fed’s sugarcoated data shows inflation twice has high as their target. * Gold may be turning its $1800 ceiling into a floor. * Bitcoin pumps with risk assets. * Record GBTC discount shows investors are losing interest in Bitcoin. * Inflation will peak when people least expect it. * Elon Musk wrote the biggest tax check to the US government in history. * Elizabeth Warren is a freeloader. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Dec 20211h 11min

The Era of Low Inflation Was Transitory – Ep 762

The Era of Low Inflation Was Transitory – Ep 762

* Chinese imports have kept a lid on goods prices, but not services. * Dollar will decline when foreign investors no longer want US stocks. * We now have more inflation and less ability to deal with it than in the 1970s. * US may soon trade used American cars for used Chinese bikes. * The US Dollar is still backed by more than Bitcoin is. Thanks https://avast.com! Thanks Mack Weldon. For 20% off your first order, visit https://mackweldon.com/gold with promo code GOLD INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Dec 202158min

A Dove Can’t Change Its Feathers – Ep 761

A Dove Can’t Change Its Feathers – Ep 761

* Elizabeth Warren blames inflation on greedy business owners. * Producers aren’t price gouging. They’re being gouged. * Fed should stop QE now, not just taper it. * Retail consumers are buying less and paying more. * Congress raises the debt ceiling $2.5 Trillion. * History will judge Jerome Powell before his second term ends. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

16 Dec 20211h

Government Rigged the CPI to Understate Inflation – Ep 760

Government Rigged the CPI to Understate Inflation – Ep 760

* October and November see biggest back to back CPI increase of the year. * 2021 inflation was worse than any year in the 1970s. * Rigged CPI adds to government revenue. * Jussie Smollett hangs himself with fake noose story. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. Thanks Theragun. Go to https://therabody.com/peter to try Theragun for THIRTY-DAYS starting at $199. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Dec 20211h 9min

Crypto Hearing: Irony, Lies, and Hypocrisy – Ep 759

Crypto Hearing: Irony, Lies, and Hypocrisy – Ep 759

* Bitcoin continues to lose ground to Ethereum. * Maxine Waters leads Congressional hearing on crypto. * FDIC made banking less safe. * Bitcoin competes with 14,000 other cryptocurrencies, but not the US dollar. * Michael Saylor sails off the deep end. * Bitcoin will lead to greater racial divide in wealth. * Discount on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shows institutions are not rushing into Bitcoin. * Ark Invest launches new Transparency ETF. * Cathie Wood is the epitome of “this time it’s different” * Most people have lost money who have invested in Ark ETFs. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold. Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 20211h 2min

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