Holiday Markets Overreact to Jobs Report – Ep. 481

* Markets continue to rally worldwide * Record highs overseas - much more action in Asia * Markets riding a sea of liquidity * Gold had an interesting week, closing at 1207 * The dollar had one of its best weeks in months * In terms of other currencies gold was at a 2-year high * This means that the euphoria about the dollar is not universally shared * Commodities in general were up - crude oil was up - holding above 50 * This is a good indication of a solid bottom on the price of gold * Traders continuing to make bullish dollar bets in the face of bad economic data * Traders are willing to throw out the first quarter - regardless the excuse * The bounceback from Q1 2014 was due to reasons that will not be repeated * Obamacare created a huge rush to sign up * There was a big inventory build anticipating future sales * Bets for a 2015 Q2-3 rebound are based on optimism for consumer spending * February Revolving Credit tumbled by $3.7 billion * Non-Revolving Credit surged $19.2 billion - mostly student loans * Consumers are cash poor, yet Wall Street believes they will start buying when the temperature rises * Government under-reporting student loan defaults due to forbearances * Wednesday release of FOMC minutes encouraged the dollar speculators because there were discussions about higher interest rates in June * Currency traders still haven't figured out the the Fed's comments are all theater * They are playing the game based on FedSpeak until it falls apart * A drastic turn in the FOREX markets will take a lot of people down with it * February Wholesale Trade declined again after January reported biggest decline in 6 years * This marks the first 3-month decline since 2008 financial crisis * Inventories rose slightly because of decline in sales * Inventory to Sales Ratio at 1.29 - highest since 2008 financial crisis * 2014 GDP increase was due to rush to build inventory in anticipation of recovery * Bottom line: economic data shows that a second-quarter bounce in the GDP is just wishful thinking * Ben Bernanke's new book titled "The Courage to Act" belongs in the fiction section * Let historians justify his role in history - it is far to early to claim success * This is the same guy who was blind-sided by the 2008 financial crisis * He claimed courageous decisions in the face of critics, while actually putting politics and the banks ahead of the country * His book may be coming out on eve of next economic fire that he set Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Apr 201521min

* Big double standard in the media regarding "sexism" * Rolling Stone story based on complete fiction about a woman who claimed she was raped in a fraternity house * The reporter accepted the woman's story without checking sources * After the facts were out, the reporter apologized to everyone except the men who were falsely accused and the fraternity involved * Where is the outrage that the real victims did not receive an apology? * Is it sexist to assume that men do not deserve apologies when wrongly accused? * The reporter refuses to condemn the woman who lied * The primary apology must go to the wrongly accused, the fraternity and to the university Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Apr 201518min

* Media's take: Why run for President if you can't win? * "He's too Libertarian to win" * "He is not as Libertarian as his father" * "Rand Paul is closer to the mainstream than his father" * His chances are as good as anyone's at this point * He is actually closer to his father than he is to the mainstream * If you like Ron Paul, how can you not like his son? * Rand will maintain his father's supporters * There are a lot of Libertarian Republicans, and Rand will attract most of those votes * Rand has a chance to win in 2016 and in 2020 * If he wins, he will maintain his strong principles Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Apr 20159min

* When employers empower certain groups with special privileges they become clubs with which to beat the employer * Employers are then reluctant to put themselves in a position to be bashed with that club * Large companies must prove diversity and go out of their way to hire minorities * That kind of discrimination is the right of the employer * Whenever you hire anyone you make yourself vulnerable to frivolous suits * The government has made American business less competitive by appealing to the job seekers not the the job creators * This eventually backfires on the job seekers by minimizing the number of employers * I established my offshore bank because government regulation made it so much harder for me to service my international clients * This drove away jobs that would have been in America * Now it is impossible for our company to accept foreign accounts, including Americans living overseas * My offshore bank may not accept offshore accounts or non-American customers * Government regulations are now making it difficult on Americans who live abroad * Every business in the country is being undermined by growing government regulation Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Apr 201519min

* Markets are finally getting a chance to react to worst jobs report in two years * March non-farm payrolls coming in at about half of forecast * Dollar was off about 1% on FOREX * Stock futures were down on opening bell but shot 100 points higher * "Bad News is Good News" rally * CNBC thinks jobs takes June rate hike is off the table - but it was never on the table in the first place * The Fed will not be serving a September rate hike either * It's going to be an all you can eat "QE Buffet" * The dollar should have sold off more, but the bull market persists * Currency traders are using circular logic about the strong dollar * The dollar is rising for the same reason that the economy is slowing - the Fed has suspended QE and higher rates are expected * The effects of a strong currency should build over time * When the dollar uptrend ends, it will be a collapse because there are so many people on the wrong side of the trade * March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slipped more than expected - lowest since June 2014, a two-year low * Monday WSJ article said that if Fed is worried to raise rates even a quarter of a point, then the U.S. Economy is not as strong as everyone thinks * If the Fed really believes the economy is strong, they would have already raised rates * Continued low interest rates indicate the Fed does not believe the economy is strong. * Crude Oil continues to rebound - above $53/barrel * If we close above $54, the market should see move up to mid $70's * Higher oil prices will start to hurt consumers Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Apr 201515min

* April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks * Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero * Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom * Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build * No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback * U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains * Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3% * Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations * First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013 * Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month * Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed's objective to maintain spending bubble * Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth * The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending * The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008 * Chicago PMI was below 50 in March - near 6 year lows * March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months - biggest miss vs expected in 4 years * March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 - lowest level in 22 months - 5-month decline - first time since 2008 * Construction spending "unexpectedly fell" * Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP * Stock market weakening again - oil and gold up * U.S. dollar no longer making new highs * Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market * Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades * Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise * Friday jobs number, the Fed's gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news * Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Apr 201525min

* Indiana passed a law to prevent lawsuits targeting religious objection * Pressure and feigned outrage from the left wing machine causes Governor to walk back the meaning of the law * The mark of a free society is the willingness to tolerate intolerance * Liberals are the most intolerant of other peoples' intolerance * In a free market there is always someone who wants my business, even if someone else does not * I would rather get the intolerance out in the open, and just avoid that business * It looks like the Indiana gay couple were searching for a business that would object to participating a gay wedding * Why can't there be a business for bigots? * It doesn't hurt anyone but the business, because it narrows the customer base * The Governor can't stand up for what he believes * Why doesn't he just say that the law allows certain individuals to discriminate based on religion * A small segment of the community is holding everyone else hostage * There is some inherent hypocrisy - whom is it OK to discriminate against? * It should be legal to discriminate against anybody * Government should not give a license to do what they should naturally have a right to do * The government is extolling privileges on individuals that turn into weapons, frivolous lawsuits, and undermine our economy Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Apr 201537min

* If an employee sues an employer falsely, the employer has no recourse, because it could be interpreted as retaliation * Ms. Pao lost not only on her discrimination claim, she also lost on claim that she was retaliated against * The big problem is the reaction in the media * The tone in the press is supportive to Ms. Pao, even though she was not telling the truth * She was suing for $16 million - her motive was greed * This is not a "victory for women" - it is a loss * The suit makes employers reticent to risk false gender-based accusations * The press promise more sexual discrimination cases in the pipeline, suggesting someone might "get lucky" * Most gender-based lawsuits are never litigated - they are settled for cash * Employers are not going to discriminate based on gender * Gender discrimination is a poor business strategy * This case sends a loud message to employers to avoid the risk of gender based discrimination by avoiding women Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Mars 201524min