Week 20 + Alaska Energy Geopolitics

Friday, May 15, 2026. WEEK 20 RECAP: WTI $97.01 → $100.37 peak → $101.56-$101.68 close. Strong Buy across MAs. Henry Hub $2.847-$2.96, Strong Buy bias. EIA: Crude -2.3M, gasoline -2.5M, distillate -1.3M (tight). Gas storage +63 Bcf (surplus building). Demand strong, refinery utilization 90.1%, LNG exports running. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal, Trump considering reviving Project Freedom, security team met to discuss options, ceasefire on life support. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. GEOGRAPHIC FEATURE: ALASKA. ANS March 2026: 410,111 bpd (up 0.4% MoM, down 3.74% YoY). Total ANS incl. NGL: 460,555 bpd. Prudhoe Bay: 201,488 bpd crude (80.8% of field, up 3.42% MoM), 249,416 bpd total (up 2.69% MoM). EIA 2026 forecast: ANS 477,000 bpd avg (13% YoY increase, highest since 2018). Alaska crude fetching $5-10/bbl premium on global markets due to Middle East shortages. State pocketing tens of millions monthly in extra revenue. Permanent Fund dividends boosted. Cook Inlet gas production declining sharply, zero LNG exports since 2015, Kenai facility idle. Utilities seeking LNG imports via FSRU. Cook Inlet LNG LLC advancing offshore FSRU import project (resupplies every 30-45 days in winter). Harvest Midstream eyeing imports at idled Kenai terminal by 2028. ALASKA LNG PROJECT: North Slope gas to Cook Inlet export terminal, 807 miles pipeline, $44B+, advanced planning not operational. Governor Dunleavy March 2026 bill proposes alternative tax structure for viability. White House backs tax reform. Phase 1 FID possibly early 2026, full exports years away. Needs 3 MMtpy offtake for FID. Early works/construction eyed for 2026. Environmental concerns: Cook Inlet beluga whales, massive CO2 emissions. Geopolitical: Iran war accelerating Alaska LNG interest, war-induced supply gaps could fast-track project, Trump promoting Alaska gas/oil as counter to Iran energy weaponization, Alaska joins Texas/North Dakota as Hormuz chokepoint hedges. Risk: Rural villages face $10+/gallon diesel, war spikes could trigger survival scenarios, pipeline prospects mixed (optimism vs. investment diversion fears), export insurance hikes. Bottom line: Alaska positioned to benefit massively from prolonged Middle East disruption but vulnerable to rural fuel crisis, investment uncertainty, environmental concerns.