Rational Security: The “Mosquitos and Heat and Sweaty and Eww” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:

• “The Empire Strikes Out.” Russia’s ground offensive in Ukraine appears to have hit some stiff resistance with it losing territory over the past calendar year in the face of a strong defense by Ukrainian forces—including strikes on Russian supply lines in Russia—and growing manpower shortages and economic pressures at home. But Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be compensating with one of the most brutal air campaigns in recent memory, including a massive aerial attack on Kyiv this week that forced tens of thousands of Ukrainians to shelter in place—including our own Nastya. What signs are there for optimism—or for caution—on the future of Russia’s war of aggression? And how will positive developments on the battlefield for Ukraine impact Russia’s demands at the negotiating table?
• “Strait Trippin’.” On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for the first time since the U.S. went to war with Iran and told senators that “the war is over.” This statement came just days after the United States and Iran traded strikes and Iranian state-run news outlets reported that it had broken off negotiations with the United States. President Trump, on the other hand, insists that the talks are still ongoing and appeared to pressure Israel to pull back from a major offensive against Hezbollah over the weekend. What do we make of these developments? Has there been any progress toward a negotiated solution to the conflict? Is there any reality to Secretary Rubio’s assertion that the war has come to an end?
• “Pulte Fiction.” President Trump announced an unexpected pick to take over the position of Director of National Intelligence on Tuesday: Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and heir to a residential home building empire, with apparently no national security experience whatsoever. Trump said Pulte will stay on as housing director and take over the job from Tulsi Gabbard in a part-time and acting capacity. So who exactly is he? And why does Trump trust him enough to pick him to serve, at least part time, in one of the country’s most important intelligence positions?

In object lessons, the crew goes all in on what to read and listen to. Nastya is giving a nod to “The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,” by Angela Stent. Tyler is giving two thumbs up to the work of architecture critic Kate Wagner. Scott is tapping his toe to Marisa Anderson’s “The Anthology of UnAmerican Folk Music.” And Ari is grooving to the Switched On Pop podcast, a deep dive into the music that moves us.

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