Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?

On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Apr 202457min

Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from 21 percent a decade ago and just 6 percent in the early '90s. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who attend religious services weekly or nearly every week has fallen from 42 percent in 2000 to 30 percent now. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with a roundtable of experts on religion and society about why the decline has happened and what it portends for American communities, networks and politics. Joining the podcast are Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute; Ryan Burge, Professor of Political Science at Eastern Illinois University and a Baptist Pastor; and Daniel Cox, Director of the Survey Center on American Life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Apr 202449min

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in getting on the ballot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Apr 202454min

A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it could mean for Democrats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Mars 202454min

Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

25 Mars 202446min

Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich engage in a spirited debate. They'll defend their arguments on whether to ban TikTok, maintain the status quo or even consider banning social media altogether. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Mars 202456min

The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Mars 202456min

After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. There’s only one problem: According to political scientist Chris Devine, they don’t actually work. At least, not all that well and not in the ways you’d expect. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Devine talks about his recently published book called, “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Mars 202448min