292. Is the property market actually broken, or does it just feel that way?

Everyone has an opinion on housing, and Evan Lucas warns up front that this one will make you either very angry or very happy. In part three of the four-part economics series, he and Ana get into why there's no such thing as "the Australian property market", why supply has lagged for 40 years, and why the standard fixes tend to make the demand side worse.

In this episode we'll discuss:

💸 The uniquely Australian problem: we have the highest urbanisation rate in the developed world and we all want to live near the CBD, while Europe and North America happily commute

💸 Why supply has been stuck for decades: planning approvals, NIMBY versus YIMBY, our resistance to density, and build times that have blown out to 30 to 33 months

💸 Price to income ratios that have doubled, with Perth going from about 4.5 to 8.5 times gross income and Brisbane from 5.5 to 9.5, against the 3 to 4 times boomers were paying

💸 Why property behaves unlike shares: if a seller doesn't like the price, they pull the listing, so supply shrinks exactly when you'd expect it to grow. Clearance rates are now the worst since 2018

💸 Why the 5% deposit scheme is a demand-side answer to a supply-side problem

💸 The downsizing trap: stamp duty, agent fees and a lack of anything smaller to move into, and the radical HECS-style proposal for drawing on the family home instead of the pension

💸 Melbourne's slowdown, Victoria's sick economy, the honeymoon bump that follows a change of government, and why Melbourne is on track to become Australia's biggest city by 2050

💸 Evan's closing point: a house is shelter as well as an asset, and that changes what it's reasonably worth to you

Nothing here is advice, and no one can tell you what prices do next. But if you're trying to get in and it feels impossible, Evan's view is that you probably will, and you may have to change what you're willing to accept to do it. Next episode: business cycles, markets, and why timing doesn't work.

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