Paul Craven on Living With Uncertainty

What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?

Episode summary
My guest is Paul Craven, a behavioural scientist, former investment professional, magician and keynote speaker, and one of my favourite people to talk to. When we sat down to record this episode, I noticed that Paul’s voice sounded different.

His explanation — that he had recently been diagnosed with oral cancer — took our conversation in an unexpected and deeply personal direction.We explore what his experience has taught him about uncertainty, why he deliberately chose not to Google his diagnosis, and the difference between having information and having useful information.

From there, we explore luck and skill, decision and gratitude journals, relationships versus transactions, the dangers of binary thinking, and why sometimes the best thing you can do when you’re in a bad mood is go for a walk in the rain. It’s a conversation about behavioural science, but also about perspective, paying attention and what we discover about ourselves when life doesn’t go according to plan.

Key themes

• Living with uncertainty and the psychological value of having a plan
• Why more information isn’t always better information
• AI, search engines and our desire for certainty
• Nuance versus binary thinking
• Luck, skill and decision journals
• Gratitude and paying attention to what matters
• Relationships versus transactions
• Storytelling, lived experience and different ways of seeing the world
• Chameleon Thinking and the value of changing perspective

Guest Profile - Paul Craven
Paul is a behavioural scientist, keynote speaker and former investment professional who brings together insights from psychology, behavioural science, finance and magic to explore how people really think and make decisions.


Links

• Paul Craven — speaker profile and booking enquiries
• Paul Craven’s website
• Iain McGilchrist
• Martin Shaw
• Mark Vernon

Paul’s previous appearances on the Human Risk Podcast
Solo: Paul Craven on Magic, Money & The Mind

With Gerald Ashley: Gerald Ashley & Paul Craven on Statistics, Spreadsheets & Scam Artistsand Paul Craven & Gerald Ashley on Context, Consequences & Changeability

With Rory Sutherland: Rory Sutherland & Paul Craven on Alchemy & Magic and Paul Craven & Rory Sutherland on Magic & Alchemy

With Rory Sutherland & Gerald Ashley at Abbey Road

Timestamped summary
00:00 — Introduction

01:35 — Paul’s diagnosis and living with uncertainty
Paul reveals his cancer diagnosis and reflects on why not knowing can sometimes be harder than receiving difficult news.

07:00 — Medicine, empathy and different perspectives
What Paul’s experience of the NHS taught him about communication, multidisciplinary thinking and the importance of context.

10:00 — Appreciating life, stories and walking in the rain
From Iain McGilchrist and Martin Shaw to Rowan Williams’ wonderfully simple advice for dealing with a bad mood.

17:10 — Reframing, Chameleon Thinking and “All shall be well”
Why changing perspective can help us navigate difficult circumstances — including Paul’s own illness.

25:45 — Why Paul chose not to Google his cancer
The risks of searching without context, what AI adds to the problem, and why life rarely provides simple binary answers.

31:20 — Luck, skill and keeping journals
What investment management can teach us about hindsight, decision quality and the value of both decision and gratitude journals.

37:20 — Relationships, transactions and the limits of efficiency
Why trust and relationships matter, and what can be lost when we optimise purely for efficiency.

43:25 — Authenticity, AI and Chesterton’s Fence
The value of individuality in an AI-mediated world and why we should understand what we’re discarding before we replace it.

47:10 — Wisdom under every rock
Paul brings together the themes of reframing, curiosity and learning from different perspectives.

49:10 — An update on Paul
Christian shares encouraging news following Paul’s surgery and looks forward to welcoming him back to the show.