Podcast #1182: The US Movie Box Office - An analysis

On this week's show we look at whether we have seen peak streaming and we take an analytical look at the movie box office. We may have hit peak Hollywood in the 1990s and early 2000s. We also read your emails and take a look at the week's news.

News:

1. Netflix smashes records with NFL double-header and Beyoncé Bowl on Christmas Day
2. LG's Transparent OLED TV Is Now On Sale

Other:

• HONEST REVIEW - FREE TELLY TV - UNBOX ASSEMBLE REVIEW
• Telly
• MCINTOSH FACTORY TOUR

Streaming Slows to a Trickle in 2025

An embarrassment of riches awaits television and film audiences in 2025, as projects that were delayed by a Hollywood strike in 2023 reach the small and big screens at last. New instalments of "Avatar", "Mission: Impossible" and "Captain America" will jostle for attention at the cinema. At home, viewers will settle down for more of "The White Lotus" and the final chapter of "Stranger Things". Full article here (Subscription Required)

Movie Box Office Receipts - An Analysis

You may have heard us say that the movie theater business is in decline. With streaming services and short theatrical release windows people are not going to movie theaters. Here's a look at the Box Office Numbers and what has been driving them. These numbers and data were found on Box Office Mojo by IMDB and are for the original US release. For comparisons the dollars have been adjusted for inflation to 2024 dollars.

Top 5 Box Office Receipts:

Year Box Office 2024 $ #1 Release

1. 2018 $11.8B $14.8 Black Panther
2. 2016 $11.4 $15.0 Finding Dory
3. 2019 $11.4 $14.1 Avengers:Endgame
4. 2015 $11.1 $14.8 Jurassic World
5. 2017 $11.0 $14.2 Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

Last Five Years Box Office Receipts:

Year Box Office 2024 $ #1 Release

2024 $8.5 $8.5 Inside Out

2023 $8.9 $9.2 Barbie

2022 $7.4 $8.0 Top Gun: Maverick

2021 $4.5 $5.2 Spider-Man: No Way Home

2020 $2.1 $2.56 Bad Boys for Life

Highest Receipts when adjusted for Inflation:

Year Box Office 2024 $ #1 Release

2010 $10.6 $15.4 Avatar (Number 1 Grossing movie of all time)

2009 $10.6 $15.4 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Original Star Wars:

1977 $443M $2.4B Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope

1980 $1,6 $6.1 Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

1983 $2.7 $8.6 Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi

All Numbers below are for the original Release:

Avatar - (2010) $750M (2024) $1.1B

Avatar (Worldwide) - (2010) $2.7B (2024) $3.9B

Top Gun: Maverick - (2022) $719M (2024) $775M

Top Gun: Maverick (Worldwide) - (2022) $1.5B (2024) $1.6B

Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope - (1977) 307M (2024) $1.6B

Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope (Worldwide) - (1977) 775M* (2024) $4.0B

• Box Office Mojo did not have worldwide numbers. We used the-numbers for this value.

Inflation Adjusted US Domestic Box Office for the last 25 years:

Summary:

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the box office experienced significant growth, with yearly receipts reaching new heights. For instance, in 2002, domestic box office revenues hit a peak of approximately $16 billion when adjusted for inflation.

Since then, total box office receipts have fluctuated, especially reacting to global events, such as the 2008 financial crisis, which led to a decrease in consumer spending on entertainment.

The last two decades have seen a dominance of comic book adaptations and franchise films (e.g., Marvel Cinematic Universe, Star Wars, etc.) at the box office. These films often dominate annual box office charts, with some grossing over a billion dollars domestically.

Sequels, remakes, and adaptations became staples as studios sought safe investments. The trend has been reinforced by the success of properties with established fan bases.

The rise of streaming services (Netflix, Disney+, etc.) has changed how audiences consume films, often leading to decreased box office attendance for certain genres, particularly dramas and non-franchise films.

The pandemic and writers strike severely impacted the film industry, with theaters closing and productions halting. The domestic box office fell dramatically in 2020. This decline prompted many studios to rethink release strategies, leading to more simultaneous releases on streaming platforms.

Post-pandemic, there has been a gradual recovery, with some films performing exceptionally well, while smaller films continue to face challenges in recapturing pre-pandemic audience levels.