Walmart Stalls, Target Stirs & Amazon Flies, Plus Bain Capital's Scott Friend and VMG's Indy Guha

Episode 310 opens with Steve Dennis reporting back from an invitation-only Amazon analyst day in Seattle, two days focused on Prime and grocery. Steve unpacks the breadth of the Prime flywheel, Amazon's push into sub-one-day delivery, the drone facility he toured just before the company announced an expansion to roughly 500 markets, and why Amazon's rise to the number two grocer in North America should have rivals looking over their shoulders.

Then, the numbers. US retail sales grew about 5% excluding fuel. Walmart delivered a lackluster 2.6% US comp, its weakest in six years, offset by a 46% jump in global advertising and nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds the company says it will reinvest in price. Target posted a nearly 4% comp with traffic up 3.6%; real progress, though Steve cautions the invitation can be better than the party. In off-price, TJX comped 4% while Ross Stores turned in a second straight double-digit quarter. And Simon Property Group made the case that great physical retail is alive and well.

The interview, recorded live at the CommerceNext Growth Show in New York, features Scott Friend, Partner at Bain Capital Ventures, and Indy Guha, General Partner at VMG Partners. Scott co-founded price optimization pioneer ProfitLogic before joining BCV twenty years ago; Indy co-leads VMG's commerce infrastructure fund after scaling Signifyd. Together they tackle a hard question: when AI makes everything easier to build, how do you tell a real company from a pitch formula? Their answer centers on founder clarity and earned domain expertise, because a couple of quarters' head start has never mattered more.

The conversation ranges across whether personalization and merchandising optimization are now table stakes, the surveillance pricing debate, AI-driven homogeneity versus the promise of the "N of one" customer journey, and Indy's memorable "Claude-proof" test for anyone building in commerce. Both push back on agentic commerce hype, arguing agents will own low-interest replenishment missions while people keep the treasure hunt. Scott points to the revenue ramp of AI-native companies as evidence this cycle is real, not overhyped. Both land in the same place: brand, community, and authenticity are the last durable moats, and retail teams must become architects rather than assembly-line workers.

Back in studio, on the radar: Steve tracks the bond market, with 30-year Treasuries at a 19-year high and the 10-year at 4.75%, squeezing discretionary income and retailer expansion plans alike. Michael watches Canadian icon Roots, newly sold to New York's Marquee Brands with Joe Mimran advising on merchandising, and asks whether the brand can reclaim its former glory.

Registration is open for a special webinar featuring Steve in conversation with Placer AI's Head of Analytical Research RJ Hottovy. From changing shopping patterns to emerging market opportunities, shifting consumer demand continues to reshape the industry. So don't miss this data-driven session unpacking the most important trends defining today’s marketplace and the strategies leading brands are using to win retail's future. It's all brought to you by Placer.AI and It all happens on Tuesday September 29 at 1pm ET..

Register here today:

https://www.placer.ai/discover-events/discover-shifting-consumer-demand

About Us

Steve Dennis is a strategic advisor and keynote speaker focused on growth and innovation, who has also been named one of the world's top retail influencers. He is the bestselling author of two books: Leaders Leap: Transforming Your Company at the Speed of Disruption and Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a Forbes senior retail contributor and on social media.

Michael LeBlanc is a senior retail advisor, keynote speaker and media entrepreneur. Michael has delivered keynotes, hosted fire-side discussions hosted senior retail executive on-stage in 1:1 interviews worldwide. Michael produces and hosts a network of leading retail trade podcasts, including The Remarkable Retail Podcast, The Voice of Retail, The Food Professor, The FEED powered by Loblaw and the Global eCommerce Leaders podcast. He has been recognized by the NRF as a global Top Retail Voice for 2025 and 2026 and continues to be a ReThink Retail Top Retail Expert for the fifth year in a row.