Ep 205. Arthur Snell Returns: Iran, Burnham, Bond Markets and Climate Disorder

This week Jason is joined by old friend and former Disorder co-host Arthur Snell, former British diplomat, host of Behind the Lines, and author of Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It. Jason and Arthur start with the seemingly never-ending Iran war. Has Trump’s threatened “economic D-Day” achieved anything? Has it really even been implemented? Jason argues that Iran could become America’s Suez moment: not another Vietnam, but an debacle exposing the limits of American power and its inability to Order the world without its allies. They then turn to the U.S. midterms, whether the Democrats can retake Congress, and their continuing failure to articulate a coherent national message. And behind both American and British politics lurks another constraint: the bond market. With rising borrowing costs limiting what governments can actually do, could markets and independent institutions provide some of the feedback loops that politics increasingly lacks? Next up is Andy Burnham’s back-to-school moment. Can he rebuild Britain’s relationship with Europe, stand up to Trump and make better use of Britain’s considerable geopolitical leverage? Jason proposes an “elbows up rule”: medium powers confronting Trump need to articulate clear red lines and stick to them rather than succumbing to appeasement. Finally, Arthur draws on his book Elemental to explain how the devastating Nepal floods reveal a much bigger climate and geopolitical problem. Billions depend on water originating in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, potentially intensifying tensions between China, India and Pakistan. Like Libya’s Derna disaster, it illustrates an Enduring Disorder: foreseeable risks that fragmented institutions repeatedly fail to prepare for. To Order the Disorder, Arthur calls for rebuilding British soft power through refunding the BBC World Service, British Council and universities, while Jason proposes a clear Burnham Doctrine on Britain’s place in the world. And despite the climate crisis, Arthur offers some grounds for optimism: much of the technology needed for the energy transition already exists — the challenge is turning it into policies governments can actually deliver and then maintaining the will to implement them. For Mega Orderers Club members, Jason and Arthur continue with a bonus discussion on the Liberal Democrats and their place in Britain’s rapidly changing political landscape. Join the club at disordershow.com/club to get that immediately. SHOWNOTE LINKS: Join the Mega Orderers Club and get the Arthur Snell intro to who are the Lib Dems, what are they doing, and what do they believe in:https://www.disordershow.com/club Arthur Snell’s Elementalhttps://www.panmacmillan.com/authors/arthur-snell/elemental/9781529097016 Arthur Snell’s Behind the Lineshttps://shows.acast.com/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell Arthur’s Not All Doom Substackhttps://arthursnell.substack.com/ Join the Mega Orderers Clubhttps://www.disordershow.com/club Disorder on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Ordering the Disorder on Substackhttps://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy