SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan
As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-202021:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies01:00:14 - The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development01:04:44 - The Impact of AI on HumanityCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...
7 Juni 1h 8min
OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler
Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and investor behavior. They break down how Return Stacked blends top-down replication with a bottom-up trend engine, why most investors misunderstand what replication actually captures, and where the fault lines lie between mutual funds and ETFs. From margin management and bid-offer spreads to the limits of liquidity in a product built for growth, this conversation surfaces what it really means to package active strategies for a public wrapper — and what gets lost, or found, in the process.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:08 - Introduction to Corey Hoffstein & Adam Butler09:06 - How Hoffstein and Butler see the trend following industry going forward12:24 - The possibilities and constraints of trading ETFs20:52 - The philosophy behind their trading strategy27:26 - How they calibrate their model to accommodate markets changes32:03 - How they incorporate replication in their strategy35:50 - Their process behind capturing beta46:42 - The benefits of adding a longer tail for markets49:25 - How much volatility can trend followers tolerate?54:23 - How they maintain balance in their trend following portfolio57:37 - Implementing different types of return...
4 Juni 1h 6min
SI350: Why All Roads Lead to Higher Yields ft. Alan Dunne
Why are markets still priced as if the old world is coming back? Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine the case for structurally higher yields — not as a risk, but as the regime. Drawing from Alan’s recent writing, they trace how debt levels, policy incentives, and investor complacency have converged into a feedback loop that central banks may no longer control. From Japan’s bond signals to the quiet retreat of fiscal discipline in the U.S., this episode maps a shift that’s already underway. For investors still relying on yesterday’s models, the risk isn’t missing the turn...it’s not seeing that we’ve already made it.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing10:52 - Global Macro Picture: All Roads Lead to Higher Yields17:26 - The Evolution of Economic Policy and Debt Dynamics29:55 - The Influence of Economic Policies on Inflation and Growth40:13 - Market Trends and Investor Sentiment Survey45:08 - Navigating Market Expectations and Historical Trends59:34 - The Importance of Diversification in Investment StrategiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend...
31 Maj 1h 4min
IL39: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again? ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
We're diving deep into some serious discussions about the shifting dynamics in Europe, particularly how the political landscape, especially with Trump's influence, is shaking things up. Economists Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels who authored a compelling book on the New World Economy, argue that Trump's policies might actually be a wake-up call for Europe, pushing it to innovate and stand on its own. We explore the concept of multi-globalization, where emerging markets are stepping into the spotlight as global trade partners, and how the geopolitical climate is driving this change. We also touch on the implications of these shifts for global markets and the economy, especially in terms of energy and raw materials. It's a thought-provoking chat that challenges our views on dependency and the future of Europe in a rapidly changing world.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Koen on LinkedIn.Follow Philippe on LinkedIn.Learn more about their book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Welcoming back Koen De Leus & Philippe...
28 Maj 55min
SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski
In this episode, Niels and Mark Rzepczynski examine a market where the usual relationships have broken down. Bonds offer no shelter, volatility moves without conviction, and political intervention keeps distorting the signals investors rely on. What once served as protection now feels unreliable. Behind the headlines on tariffs, inflation, and eroding trust in institutions lies a deeper question about how to navigate when the frameworks built for one regime are carried into another. With a balance of macro insights, behavioral nuance, and hard-earned skepticism, this conversation looks at what really drives returns when narratives shift faster than the data.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - What Caught our Attention04:16 - The Impact of Supply Chains on Global Trade08:51 - The Complexities of Trust in Economics17:45 - Understanding Trend Following in Financial Markets27:18 - The Age of Uncertainty32:51 - Understanding Market Uncertainty36:52 - More than One Type of Uncertainty49:53 - The Fallout of Trend Following01:01:22 - The Dynamics of Safe Assets01:02:41 - Transitioning from Concepts to Practical Insights in Trend FollowingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
24 Maj 1h 6min
GM82: The Surprising Success of the U.S. Economy ft. Elroy Dimson & Kiran Ganesh
America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, discussing how the US has thrived and what that means for future investment strategies. Our guests, Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh, share their expertise on market trends, the importance of diversification, and the implications of recent economic shifts. We also explore the complexities of factors like equity risk premium and the evolving role of bonds in an investment portfolio. Join us as we explore these themes and consider what’s next for investors in a changing global landscape. You can read the Global Investment Returns Yearbook here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Elroy on LinkedIn.Follow Kiran on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh09:21 - What kind of feedback do they get from clients?13:04 - Stocks for the long run?17:41 - Is the US losing its grip on its economy?24:08 - Are indicies...
21 Maj 1h 3min
SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies01:11:10 - Navigating Market ChangesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...
17 Maj 1h 15min
UGO02: Inequality, Inflation, and the End of Consensus ft. Jim Bianco
What if the volatility we’re seeing is not a pause in the cycle, but the start of something lasting? In this episode, Cem Karsan sits down with Jim Bianco to unpack the forces reshaping the market and the political landscape around it. From the roots of labor unrest in 1880s Chicago to rising tariffs and inflation today, they trace how decades of policy widened inequality and fractured the middle. This is a conversation about debt, power, and the limits of the old playbook. The Fed may no longer be able to step in. Passive investing may no longer offer safety. If you are still positioned for the past, this episode is a clear signal to rethink what comes next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Jim on X.Episode TimeStamps: 02:01 - Introduction to Jim Bianco and Bianco Research06:36 - The big macro picture view16:02 - The financial inequality is at an all time high22:51 - The power of generational wealth24:07 - The imbalance of politics - something has to change27:47 - Why we will see a major shift in how we invest soon30:19 - How the economy is changing36:10 - What defines a strong economy?40:58 - What is Trump talking about?45:36 - The outlook of the economy53:33 - The core of the political problems in the US55:16 - How to benefit from the current market...
13 Maj 1h 3min
