GM25: A realtime account of going through "hell" in the markets ft. Michael Gayed

Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not a long-vol strategy and how Gayed uses Lumber vs Gold as a market, Risk-on Risk-off indicator and how he uses treasuries as a tool to look forward in time. We also dig into why Gayed believe that higher rates is indicative of an increasing economic activity, why your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself, how buying used items can be a way to fight inflation and why the best investment opportunities happens on dislocations, the reason working harder does not necessarily generate better results and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed

06:05 - What Michael learned from the Great Recession?

13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility

17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?

23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk

26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?

30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?

31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?

34:34 - Higher rates = increased economic activity?

37:27 - Being persistent is key

39:34 - Will yields come in very sharply?

42:02 - The problem of the inflation narrative

45:31 - Allocating to ETFs and funds

48:48 - The sad side to the business

58:26 - Key takeaways from Niels

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