IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers
Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to predict markets and how monetary policy has contributed to economic instability, the incentives for a company’s management and how to balance the level of leverage. Lastly, we discuss reasons why policy makers should be focusing on Q, what Andrew has planned for the future and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Andrew on Smithers & Co & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:15 - Introduction to Andrew 03:28 - Key messages from his book06:42 - How is the Q Ratio constructed?14:34 - The idea of hindsight value23:31 - How Quantitative Easing caused instability?26:49 - How remuneration policies have led to an increased Q value31:14 - The incentives for management42:30 - Should policy makers focus more on...
27 Juli 20221h 6min
SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynsky joins us today for a weekly talk on Trend Following, where we discuss how we are beginning to see stagflation and recession around the world, how to manage systemic risk as a trend follower, how to construct your portfolio using Trend Following funds and why it’s preferred to let Trend Following funds replace bonds and commodities, whilst leaving equities in your portfolio. Additionally, we discuss how a global macro binary world allows for Trend Following to work and why Mark believe in “let prices speak for themselves”. We round things off discussing how the Fed uses the “Powell Call” rather than the "Greenspan Put" to determine how they should react to the markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:43 - Recap of the major events from this week?09:43 - Industry performance update12:40 - Q1, Alp: How to manage Systemic Risks32:40 - Q2, Algernond: Portfolio construction using Trend Following funds41:05 - A global macro binary world and its impact on trend following53:13 - Revival of accepting price action when it comes to investment process01:01:18 - Moving beyond the Greenspan Put01:04:39 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...
24 Juli 20221h 6min
IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan
Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Manoj on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates?15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased?22:31 - Using...
20 Juli 202259min
SI201: Trend Followers Positioned for Recession ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan tackle lots of great questions from listeners as to why Trend Following works, why trends occur in markets and why it is best to exploit them using a systematic approach, the idea of doing Trend Following on Trend Following using the TTU trend barometer. We also discuss different ways of looking at leverage in your portfolio, pros and cons of using stops and different approaches to applying volatility targeting. Lastly, we discuss why it can be beneficial to trade more than one Trend Following system, the issues that can occur when using the same system for a diversified composite, how to avoid the anxiety associated with building drawdowns and finally we address recent statements made that CTAs may be not be well positioned should we enter into a recession.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:03 - Update on recent market and economic news?08:36 - Industry Performance update10:28 - Q1, Bruno: Why does Trend Following work?22:57 - Q2, Elie: Doing Trend Following on Trend Following 29:50 - Q3, Adam: How to calculate leverage for a CTA?35:43 - Q4, Mark: Complicating your system with stops & views on volatility targeting54:51 - Trading an ensemble of systems vs. a single system58:44 - Using the same systems for a diversified portfolio01:06:12 - Dealing with the psychological challenges of drawdowns01:13:22 - Comments on...
16 Juli 20221h 23min
IL03: Finding Optimism in Times of Crises ft. Larry Siegel
Today, Larry Siegel, Author and Director of Research at CFA Research Foundation, joins us to discuss his book, “Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance” and how demographic trends impact inflation. Additionally, we discuss the benefits of population growth, the importance of having a free society and how authoritarianism and fascism impairs a population, the history of economic growth and how it has enabled better and cheaper sources of energy, nuclear power and how it can be a solution to the global energy crisis. Lastly, we discuss why global warming is not as severe and urgent of a problem as many believe, due to technological advancements and great progress in recent years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Larry on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:12 - An introduction to Larry and his book11:46 - Key takeaways from Larry’s study of demographic trends18:48 - Population and economic growth around the world27:49 - The importance of freedom31:53 - Economic growth = better and cheaper sources of energy?38:30 -...
13 Juli 20221h 3min
SI200: Stacking Returns into a Tightning Cycle ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne and I discuss the use of return stacking in asset management when building a diversified portfolio and the risk implications, adding CPPI on top of Trend Following and using options to achieve a constant cash flow. We also discuss the increasing inflation and rising uncertainty in the economy, the relationship between inflation and unemployment and how we are in the middle of a different Fed tightening cycle, as well as ways to build a portfolio in a difficult asset environment and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:58 - Summary of the week07:49 - Industry performance update10:50 - Q1, Matthijs: Using return stacking in portfolio construction26:38 - Q2, Adding CPPI on top of Trend Following & using options38:12 - Increasing uncertainty in the economy56:13 - Building portfolios for different regimes01:05:46 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: The Return of the Philips CurveCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...
10 Juli 20221h 7min
IL02: Cold War & US Relations with China ft. James A. Fok
James A. Fok, Financial Markets Professional and author of the book, “Financial Cold War”, joins us today for a discussion on how the Great Leap Forward has had an impact on China as a society and why they start to experience a virtual societal collapse, the financial relationship between China and the U.S and how financial warfare between the two countries can create a global crisis. We also discuss the idea of financial mutually assured destruction and how the Western society can become more financially independent from China and vice versa, the notion of having a neutral reserve currency to create a more balanced financial relationship and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow James on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:58 - Who is James A. Fok & why did he write his book07:30 - A virtual societal collapse in China19:02 - An emerging scepticism?25:03 - The balance payment deficit of the U.S40:10 - Deepening the interdependencies between China and the U.S50:14 - A fragmented financial...
6 Juli 20221h 4min
SI199: Achieving Highest CAGR through Optimal Leverage ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us to discuss the eventful month of June and take questions from listeners regarding moving average crossover systems including what the best exit rules are for these systems, and why it might not be a good idea to enter all existing positions for new accounts. We also debate the sustainability of short-term Trend Following and intraday trading, and how much of the profit from TF Systems can be expected to come from Long sided trades as well as ways of investing into UCITS funds with pension money without paying too high fees. Finally, Rob shares some very important aspects on the relationship between optimal leverage and CAGR and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro05:53 - Performance update from Rob and Niels15:23 - Q1, Andrew: How best to use Moving Average Crossover Systems20:40 - Q2, Greg: The downside of entering all existing positions for new accounts24:13 - Q3, Algernond: Getting into UCITS funds at a reasonable price28:04 - Q4, Michael: Has Rob considered refocussing on short-term trading?44:20 - Q5, Anders: How much profit comes from long-sided trades & why? 55:08 - Understanding the relationship between CAGR & Leverage01:17:58 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: Highest CAGR through Optimal LeverageCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All...
3 Juli 20221h 19min
