Massive Moscow Strikes & Why 2027 Could Force Putin To Negotiate. Guest: Fabian Hoffmann

Russia woke up to one of the most massive drone attacks against Moscow so far in the war. According to Russian authorities, hundreds of drones were shot down, but vital oil storage facilities just outside the Kremlin's walls still went up in smoke. Does this mean Vladimir Putin and the Russian military are losing their grip on their own airspace?

In this episode of Ukrainapodden, host Tormod Malvin Sæther is joined by PhD graduate and senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Fabian Hoffmann. They discuss the massive vulnerability now spreading on the Russian side, and how cheap Ukrainian drones are slowly but surely forcing the Russian economy to its knees. According to The Kyiv Independent, 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity is already disabled, and with Ukraine's new FP7 ballistic missiles on the horizon, the problems for Russian logistics could grow even larger.

At the same time, we discuss the technological challenges of air defense. Why is it so incredibly demanding to defend against ballistic missiles with systems like Patriot, and what can the European Project Freyja and companies like Kongsberg Gruppen contribute? We also look at the Russians' upgraded Shahed drones with jet engines, and ask the big, decisive question: When and how will the war actually end? Drawing inspiration from the Iran-Iraq war, Hoffmann provides an estimate for when the costs could become so astronomical that Putin might be forced to the negotiating table.

If you want to check out Mildly Alarmed, you can listen here: https://pod.link/1896022989

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