Rebecca Kossnick: Meta's First Prediction Market. The Inside Story of Facebook Forecast

🎙️NEXTPredict Podcast #5 with Rebecca Kossnick, Co-founder & CEO at Hypernatural

Before Kalshi. Before Polymarket. Before prediction markets were on the front page of every newspaper, Meta built one.

In 2020, a small team inside Facebook launched a product called Forecast. No real money, just points and public reputation. Every forecast was made public. And it was, by any measure, remarkably accurate.

Rebecca Kossnick joins Pierre on the NEXTPredict Podcast to tell the full inside story and to explain why Meta is now building a second one, called Arena.

⏰ Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:04 - Welcoming Rebecca Kossnick

01:30 - How Forecast got started inside Facebook's team

03:30 - Launching in April 2020 and the first wave of users

07:29 - The status problem Forecast was solving

10:52 - The challenges: explaining probabilities to users in 2019

15:47 - The grand vision

18:30 - Why Forecast didn't survive

23:48 - Hypernatural: the AI video company Rebecca and Taylor built next

25:43 - Where prediction markets and AI video collide

27:36 - Opportunity or problem?

30:18 - Where does Rebecca see Hypernatural in three years?

NYC Summit - NEXTPredict October 22 - 23, 2026 at Convene 30 Hudson Yards.

🎟 Get your tickets here: https://nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit/

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