If The 2024 Election Were Held Today, Would Trump Win?

If The 2024 Election Were Held Today, Would Trump Win?

To mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of election data nerds: G. Elliott Morris, ABC News editorial director of data analytics; Ruth Igielnik, editor for news surveys at The New York Times; and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org. In recent days, a spate of polls have come out, mostly showing a similar picture: Not only does former President Donald Trump outperform President Joe Biden in the swing states, he leads, on average, in national polls as well. The suggestion being that if the election were today — and Trump and Biden were the nominees — Trump might be favored to not just win the Electoral College, but the national popular vote too. But there’s a catch, or two. Perhaps most importantly, the election is not today. Also, we got other data last week, from actual elections, showing Democrats performing relatively well. So, one year out, where does that leave us? The crew tries to answer that and later on in the show they also play a game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Reaction Podcast: Trump Goes Long

Reaction Podcast: Trump Goes Long

Galen speaks with Nathaniel Rakich and Mary Radcliffe in this late night reaction to President Trump's address to Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Mars 202531min

Is The Era Of ‘Macho Man’ Politics Here?

Is The Era Of ‘Macho Man’ Politics Here?

Congress has kept relatively quiet during the first month of President Donald Trump's second term, but in the coming weeks it will be thrust into the spotlight. Amidst intraparty Republican debate ove...

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No, It's Not Getting More Dangerous To Fly

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It has been a difficult month for Americans afraid of flying. On Jan. 29, an American Airlines jet collided with a Black Hawk helicopter over the Potomac River, killing 67 people. It was the first maj...

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Democrats Aren't Popular. What Should They Do About It?

Democrats Aren't Popular. What Should They Do About It?

The Democratic Party has reached at least a 15-year low in the public’s view, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters have an unfavorable view of the party, whi...

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Trump's Theory Of Presidential Power

Trump's Theory Of Presidential Power

In honor of Presidents’ Day, in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with constitutional law professor Peter Shane about presidential power and its limits during President Trump's...

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A Valentine? In This Romantic Recession?

A Valentine? In This Romantic Recession?

On this Valentine’s Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Daniel Cox and Kelsey Eyre Hammond of the Survey Center on American Life. They discuss the troubled state of America...

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How Data Became A Political Football

How Data Became A Political Football

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The View From Europe

The View From Europe

In the post-war world order, the United States and Europe have been among the closest of allies. What happens if President Donald Trump upends that equation? Jeanna Smialek, Brussels bureau chief for ...

6 Feb 202538min

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