No Sleep Till Iowa

What’s on the horizon for American politics in 2025? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the team dives into what lies ahead. They start with Washington, analyzing President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days and the challenges Republicans face with their slim congressional majority. Next, they explore how public opinion on critical issues like the economy and immigration could evolve with Trump back in office. Finally, the crew turns to 2025’s pivotal electoral races, breaking down what’s at stake in the year to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Jan 45min

This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Republican Bob Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Dec 202429min

This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

23 Dec 202425min

What would you save to remember 2024 in politics? In the second part of our end-of-year series on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew builds a time capsule to capture the political essence of the year. From a Dean Phillips bumper sticker to President-elect Donald Trump’s 16-page indictment and the 538 polling average, they debate what deserves to be preserved. Plus, a discussion on the looming government shutdown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Dec 202442min

How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Dec 202442min

Earlier this year, as President-elect Donald Trump mounted his campaign to return to the presidency, it seemed like one of the biggest barriers to his election would be the battery of criminal and civil cases that had been filed against him. Now, as we near Trump’s inauguration day, what will happen to them? Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the podcast to unpack the fate of the legal cases against Trump. She provides clarity on the status of the major cases, discusses the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling on Trump’s presidency, and examines President Joe Biden’s use of the pardon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Dec 202440min

What even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Dec 202432min

In this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Dec 202448min