Are Option Probabilities B.S.?

Are Option Probabilities B.S.?

One of the attractions of trading options is the idea that you can create trades with varying degrees of probabilities of profit. In this episode, I put the option probabilities that the trading platforms give us to the test by doing a 10year backtest. The focus is on comparing both the call and put side to see if over a long term period of time, if the probabilities play out as expected.

As a bonus, listeners can view the studies discussed in this episode over on the community website in the Podcast section.

Here's the direct link:

https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/topics/4369023

Also, for those interested in generating income up to 3 times per week trading SPX 0DTE spreads, check out the SPX Masterclass and Community. Now with a live chat feed to see what trades members are taking in real time.

Here's the link to the Course:

https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/all-courses

Thanks for listening and supporting independent research on this show.

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Avsnitt(192)

192: This Week in Options Trading  | Market Outlook & Options Strategies

192: This Week in Options Trading | Market Outlook & Options Strategies

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191: This Week In The S&P500: CPI, Earnings & Gamma

191: This Week In The S&P500: CPI, Earnings & Gamma

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190: SPX Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Strategy Using 0DTE Call Debit Spreads (Part3)

190: SPX Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Strategy Using 0DTE Call Debit Spreads (Part3)

In Part 3 of this series on building an automated SPX 0DTE portfolio, we explore the final strategy we've added to our growing mix of high-frequency, positive expectancy trades: the 30-minute Opening ...

29 Juni 14min

189: The Truth About Win Rate and Risk Reward (Part 2)

189: The Truth About Win Rate and Risk Reward (Part 2)

In this episode, Eric continues the Automated Strategy Pipeline series by tackling one of the most misunderstood topics in trading: win rate.Many traders evaluate a strategy based on a single number: ...

12 Juni 13min

188: Building An Automated Strategy Pipeline (Part 1)

188: Building An Automated Strategy Pipeline (Part 1)

🚀 Join Alpha Crunching and save 50% on your first year:https://www.alphacrunching.comGet weekly SPX forecasts, backtested trade ideas, trade alerts, Discord access, and research designed to help you ...

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187: This Week in the S&P500: SPX Levels, FOMC, and NVDA Earnings

187: This Week in the S&P500: SPX Levels, FOMC, and NVDA Earnings

This week on the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric O’Rourke breaks down the current SPX market pullback, key support levels, upcoming FOMC minutes, and why Nvidia earnings could be a major ca...

19 Maj 6min

186: This Week in Options Trading - Market at Highs… Now What?

186: This Week in Options Trading - Market at Highs… Now What?

👉 Alpha Crunching (SPX data, trade ideas & alerts): https://alphacrunching.com 👉 Conservative Options Income Network (Brian Terry): https://stockmarketoptionstrading.netIn this episode, Eric sits do...

5 Maj 25min

185: Inside My SPX Strategy with Option Omega

185: Inside My SPX Strategy with Option Omega

Watch the full video version of this episode:https://youtu.be/2RgGjxUe35w?si=m1BU5TwEq973he2kLinks & Discounts:Option Omega → https://optionomega.com (Use code SMOT for a discount)Alpha Crunching → ht...

28 Apr 32min

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