Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie's favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Ernie's Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie's Budget Lab profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi

*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi

*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers

*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos

*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller's 'Soft-Landing' Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Ernie's Experience at the CEA

(00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy

(00:15:28) – Ernie's Favorite Measures of the Labor Market

(00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures

(00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium

(00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege

(00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars

(00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars

(00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity

(00:58:22) – Outro

Avsnitt(543)

David Bahnsen on the Incoming Trump Administration and the Financialization of the US Economy

David Bahnsen on the Incoming Trump Administration and the Financialization of the US Economy

David Bahnsen is a Wall Street veteran and currently is the managing director of The Bahnsen Group. In David's first appearance on the podcast, he talks through multiple questions about the incoming T...

13 Jan 202554min

Marijn Bolhuis on Fiscal R-star and its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy

Marijn Bolhuis on Fiscal R-star and its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy

Marijn Bolhuis is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF's research department. In Marijn's first appearance on the podcast he discusses his new paper, which introduces the ide...

6 Jan 202552min

Macro Musings 2024 Retrospective

Macro Musings 2024 Retrospective

David Beckworth and producer Sam Alburger dive into the last year of Macro Musings. They pick their favorite episodes, discuss how the year 2024 will be remembered in the macroeconomic history, highli...

30 Dec 202437min

George Selgin on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, Debanking, and the Fed's Framework Review

George Selgin on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, Debanking, and the Fed's Framework Review

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a returning guest to the program, and he rejoins Davi...

23 Dec 20241h

Joey Politano on the AI Investment Boom and Trends in Economic Growth

Joey Politano on the AI Investment Boom and Trends in Economic Growth

Joey Politano is an economist and a commentator who writes a popular Substack newsletter on economics. Joey is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins David to talk about the AI invest...

16 Dec 202454min

Jeffrey Lacker on the History of Fed Credit Policy and the Four Doctrines of Fed Lending

Jeffrey Lacker on the History of Fed Credit Policy and the Four Doctrines of Fed Lending

Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also...

9 Dec 202456min

Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI

Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI

Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to...

2 Dec 202450min

Ellen Correia Golay on the Keys to Improving Treasury Market Resiliency

Ellen Correia Golay on the Keys to Improving Treasury Market Resiliency

Ellen Correia Golay is an advisor in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the US Treasury market. She also helped lead an interagency working group report and a recen...

25 Nov 202447min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

framgangspodden
badfluence
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-borsens-finest
rss-svart-marknad
uppgang-och-fall
rss-dagen-med-di
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
lastbilspodden
fill-or-kill
borsmorgon
avanzapodden
bilar-med-sladd
tabberaset
bathina-en-podcast
rss-veckans-trade
kvalitetsaktiepodden
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
svd-tech-brief