022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Avsnitt(335)

154 - The Marshmallow Replication (rebroadcast)

154 - The Marshmallow Replication (rebroadcast)

The marshmallow test is one of the most well-known studies in all of psychology, but a new replication suggests we've been learning the wrong lesson from its findings for decades.-- Show Notes at: you...

20 Maj 201951min

153 - Happy Brain (rebroadcast)

153 - Happy Brain (rebroadcast)

Live Show Tickets: www.eventbrite.com/e/you-are-not-s…ets-58457802862What makes you happy? As in, what generates happiness inside the squishy bits that reside inside your skull? That's what author and...

6 Maj 20191h 29min

152 - Status Quo Rationalization (rebroadcast)

152 - Status Quo Rationalization (rebroadcast)

Live Show Tickets: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/you-are-not-so-smart-with-david-mcraney-tickets-58457802862When faced with an inescapable and unwanted situation, we often rationalize our predicament s...

21 Apr 201942min

151 - Behind the Curve

151 - Behind the Curve

In this episode we sit down with the director and producers of the documentary film, Behind the Curve, an exploration of motivated reasoning and conspiratorial thinking told through the lives of peopl...

8 Apr 20191h 14min

150 - Belief Change Blindness (rebroadcast)

150 - Belief Change Blindness (rebroadcast)

When was the last time you changed your mind? Are you sure?In this episode we explore new research that suggests for the majority of the mind change we experience, after we update our priors, we delet...

25 Mars 201938min

149 - Bad Advice

149 - Bad Advice

In this episode, we sit down with vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit to discuss his new book, Bad Advice or Why Celebrities, Politicians, and Activists Aren't Your Best Source of Health Information.Offit h...

11 Mars 20191h 7min

148 - Rule Makers, Rule Breakers

148 - Rule Makers, Rule Breakers

In this episode, we sit down with psychologist Michele Gelfand and discuss her new book: Rule Makers, Rule Breakers: How Tight and Loose Cultures Wire Our World.In the book, Gelfand presents her resea...

25 Feb 20191h 13min

147 - The Replication Crisis (rebroadcast)

147 - The Replication Crisis (rebroadcast)

"Science is wrong about everything, but you can trust it more than anything."That's the assertion of psychologist Brian Nosek, director of the Center for Open Science, who is working to correct what h...

10 Feb 201945min

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