022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Avsnitt(336)

339 - Enlightened Disagreement

339 - Enlightened Disagreement

Northwestern University just launched the Litowitz Center for Enlightened Disagreement, a real-world institution devoted to "research-backed approaches to cultivating open-mindedness, identifying one’...

11 Maj 1h 28min

338 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans (rebroadcast)

338 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans (rebroadcast)

Alex Edmans, a professor of finance at London Business School, tells us how to avoid the Ladder of Misinference by examining how narratives, statistics, and articles can mislead, especially when they ...

27 Apr 39min

337 - Cognitive Surrender - Gideon Nave and Steven D. Shaw

337 - Cognitive Surrender - Gideon Nave and Steven D. Shaw

How is AI reshaping human reasoning? What is cognitive surrender, and how do we avoid its negative impact? What is system three thinking, and how can we get the most out of it? Artificial intelligence...

13 Apr 59min

336 - The 3.5 Percent Rule - Erica Chenoweth (rebroadcast)

336 - The 3.5 Percent Rule - Erica Chenoweth (rebroadcast)

If you want to overthrow a dictator, resist an authoritarian regime, or create a movement that can change the national status quo, you don't need half the country, you only need 3.5 percent of the pop...

30 Mars 1h 3min

335 - Align Your Mind - Britt Frank (rebroadcast)

335 - Align Your Mind - Britt Frank (rebroadcast)

Therapist, teacher, speaker, and trauma specialist Britt Frank tells us all about her new book, Align Your Mind, an all-access pass to understanding, befriending, and leading the multiple voices withi...

16 Mars 1h 12min

334 - Magical Thinking - Matt Tompkins (rebroadcast)

334 - Magical Thinking - Matt Tompkins (rebroadcast)

In this episode, the story of Clever Hans, the horse who changed psychology for the better. We also sit down with psychologist and magician Matt Tompkins. Matt is the author of The Spectacle of Illusi...

2 Mars 1h 19min

YANSS 333 - Selective Perception - Jay Van Bavel

YANSS 333 - Selective Perception - Jay Van Bavel

How can two people watch the same video yet see two different things? How can two people witness the same event but arrive at two different truths about what they witnessed? How can the same evidence ...

16 Feb 38min

332 - Concordance Over Truth Bias (rebroadcast)

332 - Concordance Over Truth Bias (rebroadcast)

In this episode, we sit down with three disinformation researchers whose new paper found something surprising about both our resistance and our susceptibility to both true news we wish was fake and fa...

2 Feb 1h 8min

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