022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Avsnitt(336)

331 - Wicked Problems - Martin Carcasson

331 - Wicked Problems - Martin Carcasson

Dr. Martin Carcasson tells us how he, as the Director of the Center for Public Deliberation at Colorado State, trains people how to facilitate deliberation and overcome wicked problems so that they ca...

19 Jan 1h 7min

330 - A More Beautiful Question - Warren Berger (rebroadcast)

330 - A More Beautiful Question - Warren Berger (rebroadcast)

Warren Berger has made a career out of classifying, categorizing, and making sense of the many varieties of questions that we ask and in this episode he explains how we can ask more beautiful question...

5 Jan 1h 4min

329 - Point Taken - Steven Franconeri

329 - Point Taken - Steven Franconeri

Dr. Steven Franconeri explains the powerful insights and opportunities offered by a game he and his team created for having better disagreements about just about anything, but especially about the sor...

22 Dec 202551min

328 - Shape - Jordan Ellenberg (rebroadcast)

328 - Shape - Jordan Ellenberg (rebroadcast)

We sit down with Jordan Ellenberg, a world-class geometer, who takes us on a far-ranging exploration of the power of geometry, which turns out to help us think better about practically everythingHis w...

8 Dec 20251h 10min

327 - The Trolley Solution - Joshua Greene

327 - The Trolley Solution - Joshua Greene

Philosopher, neuroscientist, and psychologist, Joshua Greene tells us how the brain generates morality and how his research may have solved the infamous trolley problem, and in so doing created a way ...

24 Nov 20251h 19min

326 - The Origin of Language - Madeleine Beekman

326 - The Origin of Language - Madeleine Beekman

We sit down with Dr. Madeleine Beekman, a professor emerita of evolutionary biology and behavioral ecology at the University of Sydney, Australia, whose new book, The Origin of Language, presents a co...

10 Nov 202546min

325 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part Two (rebroadcast)

325 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part Two (rebroadcast)

In this episode we welcome Dr. Sarah Stein Lubrano, a political scientist who studies how cognitive dissonance affects all sorts of political behavior. She’s also the co-host of a podcast about activi...

27 Okt 202557min

324 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part One (rebroadcast)

324 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part One (rebroadcast)

In this episode, the story of a doomsday cult who predicted the exact date and circumstances of the end of the world, and what happened when that date passed and the world did not end.Also, we explore...

13 Okt 202557min

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