022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Avsnitt(329)

300 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part One

300 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part One

In this episode, the story of a doomsday cult that predicted the exact date and circumstances of the end of the world, and what happened when that date passed and the world did not end.Also, we explor...

11 Nov 202456min

299 - Debunkbot

299 - Debunkbot

Our guests in this episode are Thomas H. Costello at American University, Gordon Pennycook at Cornell University, and David G. Rand at MIT who created Debunkbot, a GPT-powered, large language model, c...

28 Okt 20241h 9min

298 - Tribal - Michael Morris

298 - Tribal - Michael Morris

In this episode we sit down with renowned cultural psychologist Michael Morris to discuss his new book, Tribal, in which he makes the case for seeing humans as an "us" species, not a "them" species. M...

14 Okt 20241h 33min

297 - Project Alpha - Brian Brushwood (rebroadcast)

297 - Project Alpha - Brian Brushwood (rebroadcast)

Brian Brushwood tells us how he put together the most recent season of The World's Greatest Con, his podcast about incredible scams and over the top chicanery. This season is all about how two teenage...

30 Sep 20241h 10min

296 - Job Therapy - Tessa West

296 - Job Therapy - Tessa West

Are you unhappy at your job? Are you starting to consider a change of career because of how your current work makes you feel? Do you know why? According to our guest in this episode, Dr. Tessa West, a...

16 Sep 202455min

295 - Easy Crafts for the Insane - Kelly Williams Brown

295 - Easy Crafts for the Insane - Kelly Williams Brown

In this episode we sit down with author Kelly Williams Brown, an old friend who (I recently learned) had attempted suicide, which is the subject of this episode – suicide prevention and awareness. In ...

2 Sep 20241h 15min

294 - Living Constitutionally - A.J. Jacobs

294 - Living Constitutionally - A.J. Jacobs

In this episode we sit down with A.J. Jacobs, a journalist who noticed some striking similarities between Biblical fundamentalism and constitutional originalism, and since he once wrote a NYT bestsell...

19 Aug 20241h 28min

293 - Do Your Own Research - Sedona Chinn (rebroadcast)

293 - Do Your Own Research - Sedona Chinn (rebroadcast)

Sedona Chinn, who studies how people make sense of competing claims – scientific, environmental, health-related – joins us to discuss her latest research into doing your own research. Her research has...

5 Aug 202445min

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