022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Avsnitt(332)

303 - The Dress - Decoder Ring

303 - The Dress - Decoder Ring

In this episode we return to The Dress and the psychological lessons offered by one of the most viral moments in the history of the internet via an episode of Decoder Ring in which David McRaney share...

23 Dec 202443min

302 - A More Beautiful Question - Warren Berger

302 - A More Beautiful Question - Warren Berger

In this episode we sit down with Warren Berger, the author of A More Beautiful Question – and a man who has made a career out of classifying, categorizing, and making sense of all the many varieties o...

9 Dec 20241h 2min

301 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part Two

301 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part Two

In this episode we welcome Dr. Sarah Stein Lubrano, a political scientist who studies how cognitive dissonance affects all sorts of political behavior. She’s also the co-host of a podcast about activi...

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300 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part One

300 - Cognitive Dissonance - Part One

In this episode, the story of a doomsday cult that predicted the exact date and circumstances of the end of the world, and what happened when that date passed and the world did not end.Also, we explor...

11 Nov 202456min

299 - Debunkbot

299 - Debunkbot

Our guests in this episode are Thomas H. Costello at American University, Gordon Pennycook at Cornell University, and David G. Rand at MIT who created Debunkbot, a GPT-powered, large language model, c...

28 Okt 20241h 9min

298 - Tribal - Michael Morris

298 - Tribal - Michael Morris

In this episode we sit down with renowned cultural psychologist Michael Morris to discuss his new book, Tribal, in which he makes the case for seeing humans as an "us" species, not a "them" species. M...

14 Okt 20241h 33min

297 - Project Alpha - Brian Brushwood (rebroadcast)

297 - Project Alpha - Brian Brushwood (rebroadcast)

Brian Brushwood tells us how he put together the most recent season of The World's Greatest Con, his podcast about incredible scams and over the top chicanery. This season is all about how two teenage...

30 Sep 20241h 10min

296 - Job Therapy - Tessa West

296 - Job Therapy - Tessa West

Are you unhappy at your job? Are you starting to consider a change of career because of how your current work makes you feel? Do you know why? According to our guest in this episode, Dr. Tessa West, a...

16 Sep 202455min

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