022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Avsnitt(335)

098 - Active Information Avoidance

098 - Active Information Avoidance

The cyberpunks, the Founding Fathers, 19th Century philosophers, and the Enlightenment thinkers - they all looked forward to the world in which we now live, a multimedia psychedelic freakout in which ...

27 Mars 201739min

097 - Scams (rebroadcast)

097 - Scams (rebroadcast)

Before we had names for them or a science to study them, the people who could claim the most expertise on biases, fallacies, heuristics and all the other quirks of human reasoning and perception were ...

11 Mars 20171h 1min

096 - Progress

096 - Progress

Do we have the power to change the outcome of history? Is progress inevitable? Is it natural? Are we headed somewhere definite, or is change just chaos that seems organized in hindsight? In this episo...

25 Feb 20171h 5min

095 - The Backfire Effect - Part Three

095 - The Backfire Effect - Part Three

If dumping evidence into people’s laps often just makes their beliefs stronger, would we just be better off trying some other tactic, or does the truth ever win? Do people ever come around, or are we ...

11 Feb 20171h 3min

094 - The Backfire Effect - Part Two

094 - The Backfire Effect - Part Two

If you try to correct someone who you know is wrong, you run the risk of alarming their brains to a sort-of existential, epistemic threat, and if you do that, when that person expends effortful thinki...

29 Jan 201747min

093 - The Backfire Effect - Part One

093 - The Backfire Effect - Part One

We don’t treat all of our beliefs the same. The research shows that when a strong-yet-erroneous, belief is challenged, yes, you might experience some temporary weakening of your convictions, some soft...

13 Jan 201740min

091 - Learned Helplessness (rebroadcast)

091 - Learned Helplessness (rebroadcast)

Even when the prison doors are left wide open, we sometimes refuse to attempt escape. Why is that? In this rebroadcast of one of our most popular episodes we learn all about the strange phenomenon of ...

15 Dec 201647min

090 - Reality - Donald Hoffman

090 - Reality - Donald Hoffman

Have you ever questioned the nature of your reality? For our guest in this episode, cognitive psychologist Donald Hoffman, that's his day job.Hoffman has developed a new theory of consciousness that, ...

2 Dec 20161h 6min

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