Nate Silver on the Art of Risking Everything

Nate Silver on the Art of Risking Everything

Most humans are cautious by nature. We naturally like to do what’s comfortable and safe. But comfortable and safe don’t usually lead to. . . well, success. In fact, the most successful people in the world share something in common: They love risk. That’s true of the best poker players, hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and crypto traders. All of these people consider statistics; they embrace uncertainty; and they make bold predictions that ultimately pay off for themselves—and sometimes for humanity. How do they do it? Our guest today, Nate Silver, has a theory on what drives successful people, how they think, and how they achieve enormous success—or, at times, catastrophic failure. He just wrote an entire book about it. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything analyzes these types of people and the principles that guide their risky decision-making—which, he argues, is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy. Nate, one of the most sophisticated thinkers on risk and uncertainty, is a statistician, sports analyst, professional poker player, and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a website that revolutionized political reporting with its data-driven election predictions. Today, Nate discusses why it’s important to take more risks, and how he sees the current election playing out. If you hear statistics and data and probability and analytics and roll your eyes, we get it. But this is a conversation that goes beyond all that. Nate explains what frustrates him about his critics, why he is happy to no longer be affiliated with FiveThirtyEight, and how his biggest passion—poker—helped him become one of the world’s most famous prognosticators. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to thefp.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Header 6: The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Why No One Trusts Anything

Why No One Trusts Anything

What if I told you that all the brokenness in our society—from the increased rates in suicide and addiction to the decreased rates in marriage and sex to the crisis of faith in everything from the CDC to political leaders to our democratic elections—weren’t a series of separate catastrophes but symptoms of one underlying condition? That’s the argument of my guest today, Yuval Levin.  Yuval is a journalist and academic. He has served as a congressional staffer and as a domestic policy staff member under President George W Bush, he’s the author of several books including The Fractured Republic and “A Time to Build.”  I think of him as one of America’s most insightful political philosophers. I learned so much from this conversation and I hope you do, too. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

18 Mars 20221h 28min

Things Worth Fighting For

Things Worth Fighting For

For the past three weeks, we have watched the people of Ukraine and their president breathe life into virtues that many of us thought were dead or on life support: duty, sacrifice, responsibility, leadership…and courage. Unbelievable courage.  The Ukrainian people know what they’re fighting for. Do we? Today, no interview. Instead Bari speaks about what we can learn from watching President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. To read the full text, please go to: bariweiss.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 Mars 202237min

The Stakes of a No Fly Zone

The Stakes of a No Fly Zone

Russia’s war against Ukraine has been raging on for almost two weeks now and Ukraine is in crisis. President Zelensky has been begging the United States, together with their allies, to enforce a “no fly zone,” to save innocent lives and help Ukraine win a war they seem likely to lose otherwise. The U.S. has refused. So has NATO. Why?  On today’s episode, Eli Lake and Damir Marusic explain the benefits and risks of imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine, and what’s at stake—for Ukraine, for the U.S., and for the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

10 Mars 202247min

Watching Lia Thomas Win

Watching Lia Thomas Win

Lia Thomas is a transgender woman who has, in one year, become the star athlete of the women’s swim team at The University of Pennsylvania. When she competed on the men’s team, she was seeded no. 462 in the NCAA. Now, she’s seeded No. 1 and expected to beat Olympic gold medalist Katy Ledecky, widely considered one of the greatest female swimmers of all time, later this month at the NCAA championship. Thomas won’t stop there. She recently told Sports Illustrated that she has her sights set on the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris. What does the rise of Lia Thomas mean for the future of women’s sports? Suzy Weiss reports from the Harvard pool, where Lia Thomas recently smashed Ivy League records. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

6 Mars 202225min

Russia's War on Ukraine: A Roundtable

Russia's War on Ukraine: A Roundtable

Air raid sirens have been ringing out over the capital of Ukraine for the past week. Russian troops have laid siege to Kharkiv, the second biggest city in the country, and the city of Kherson in the south has already fallen. More than a half of a million Ukranians have fled their homes, with little more than a suitcase or two. Hundreds have been confirmed dead, and surely that number is just the beginning.  Why did Putin invade Ukraine at this moment? What is his endgame—and what is the West’s? Does this war augur the beginning of a new era? Perhaps even a new Cold War? Today, Niall Ferguson, Walter Russell Mead and Francis Fukuyama discuss whether or not America is up to the task of truly, as Biden said at the State of the Union address, defending freedom from tyranny. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

3 Mars 20221h 5min

America Is Afraid of War. Putin Knows It.

America Is Afraid of War. Putin Knows It.

Zoe Strimpel on the collapse of Western authority, self and geopolitical understanding— and the predictably catastrophic results of our politics of retrenchment, appeasement and pacifism. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

25 Feb 202223min

Condoleezza Rice on Race, Russia, Freedom and Why America’s Best Days Are Still Ahead

Condoleezza Rice on Race, Russia, Freedom and Why America’s Best Days Are Still Ahead

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is one of those pioneering American leaders whose story is for the history books. Born in the segregated south in the 1950s, Rice couldn’t step foot in certain movie theaters and restaurants when she was a little girl. By the time she stepped foot in the White House as a National Security Advisor and then Secretary of State, she was one of the most powerful people in the world—and the highest ranking black woman in the history of the United States. On today’s episode, a conversation with Secretary Rice, who now serves at the Director of Stanford's Hoover Institution, about the most pressing issues facing the country: the future of the GOP, the continued popularity of Donald Trump, the state of our democracy, the culture wars on race and identity politics, immigration, the rise of China, possible war in Russia … and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

22 Feb 202256min

Beijing's Genocide Olympics

Beijing's Genocide Olympics

Right now, the Winter Olympics are underway in Beijing. But for the Chinese Communist Party, the 2022 Games are an opportunity not simply for athleticism, but for authoritarianism. Athletes at the Games are subject not just to official Olympics rules, but also the heavy hand of the CCP. They are being spied on—and they have been warned, including by Nancy Pelosi, not to criticize the injustices China is committing in plain sight. Why is America participating in an Olympics in a country committing genocide? What does it say about our relationship with China? And will historians remember these games in the way we remember the 1936 Berlin Olympics? Josh Rogin is a foreign policy columnist for The Washington Post, the author of “Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century,” and a favorite Honestly guest. Today he breaks down what you aren’t seeing when you tune into this year’s Olympics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 Feb 20221h

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