Carola Binder on the History of Inflation, the Fed Framework Review, and the Promise of Nominal GDP Targeting

Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. Jonathon joins Macro Musings to talk about Phillips curves, R-stars, and nominal wage rigidity. Specifically, Jonathon and David also discuss the how to view the recent inflation experience, how to measure the natural rate using natural experiments, the downward nature of wage rigidity, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Jonathon's Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon's website Jonathon's LSE profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Natural Rate of Return on Capital: Replication Package* by Jonathon Hazell, Veronica Backer-Peral, and Atif Mian *The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence From US States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson *Measuring the Natural Rate Using Natural Experiments* by Veronica Backer-Peral, Jonathon Hazell, and Atif Mian *Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires* by Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska *National Wage Setting* by Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons, and Bledi Taska *The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?* by Christopher Pissarides

22 Jan 20241h 10min

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America, a think tank that promotes full employment in the American economy, and Preston Mui is also a senior economist at Employ America. Skanda and Preston join Macro Musings to talk about U.S. disinflation and the debates surrounding it, as well as what we can expect from Fed policy in 2024 and beyond, and finally, the Fed's framework review that is set to begin later this year. Transcript for this week's episode. Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda's Medium archive Preston's Twitter: @PrestonMui Preston's Github profile Skanda and Preston's Employ America bios David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Ten Thoughts on the Tribal "Transitory" Debate as We Enter 2024* by Skanda Amarnath *Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024* by Preston Mui and Skanda Amarnath Jerome Powell's Opening Remarks at Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy, a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conferences, hosted by the IMF

15 Jan 20241h 5min

Claudio Borio is the head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS. Claudio is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank operating systems and the challenge of large balance sheets at central banks. David and Claudio also discuss the basics and uniqueness of the scarce reserve system, the arguments in favor of an abundant reserve system, the politics of large central bank balance sheets, the possibility of a tiered reserve system, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Claudio's BIS profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio *Why Central Banks Should (but Might Not) Keep the Market Flooded With Money* by Jon Sindreu *Corridor, Floor, Other: Are Operating Frameworks Fit for the Future?* by Daniel Hinge

8 Jan 202450min

Colby Smith is the US economics editor for the Financial Times, Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, and Gerard DiPippo is the Senior Geoeconomics Analyst at Bloomberg. For this special year-end episode of Macro Musings, Colby, Steven, and Gerard join David to talk about the major surprises, themes, and underreported as well as overreported stories of the past year. They also discuss their prediction outcomes throughout 2023, the economic and political landscape ahead for 2024, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Colby's FT profile Colby's Twitter: @colbyLsmith Steven's Substack: Without Warning Steven's Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Gerard's Twitter: @gdp1985 David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Sunk Costs: The Difficulty of Using Sanctions to Deter China in a Taiwan Crisis* by Gerard DiPippo and Jude Blanchette *Getting Up from the Floor* by Claudio Borio

1 Jan 202454min

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and is the co-author of the popular economics blog, Marginal Revolution. Tyler has also published widely in the field of economics, and he is the author of numerous books, including his most recent one titled, *GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of All Time, and Why Does it Matter?* As a returning guest to show, Tyler rejoins Macro Musings for this special holiday episode to break down who should be considered the greatest economist of all time. David and Tyler also assign awards to the best performing macroeconomic theories of the past decade, in addition to discussing Tyler's view on recent deflationary trends, the Fed's framework, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Tyler's Mercatus profile Tyler's blog: Marginal Revolution Tyler's Twitter: @tylercowen David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of All Time and Why Does it Matter?* by Tyler Cowen *Tyler Cowen on the Culture of Big Business in the United States* by Macro Musings

25 Dec 202356min

Nicolas Cachanosky is an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at El Paso, and he, along with Emilio Ocampo, are the authors of a recent book titled, *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina.* Nicolas joins Macro Musings to talk about the potential dollarization of Argentina, including what it would require and mean for the country. Specifically, David and Nicolas also discuss Argentina's hyperinflationary experience, the three necessary steps for dollarization, the differences between dollarization and currency boards, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Nicolas's Substack: Economic Order Nicolas's Twitter: @n_cachanosky Nicolas's website Nicolas's UTEP profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Nicolas Cachanosky and Emilio Ocampo *How to Dollarize Argentina* by Nicolas Cachanosky *Pro Dollarization* by John Cochrane *Argentina Dollarization Is Medium-Term Goal, Caputo Tells Bankers* by Ignacio Olivera Doll

18 Dec 20231h 2min

Charles Evans was a 31-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System, serving as a researcher, vice president, and, ultimately, president and CEO of the Chicago Fed from 2007 to 2023. Charles joins Macro Musings to talk about his past and ongoing work on US monetary policy. Specifically, Charles and David discuss his work as a regional bank president and a member of the FOMC, the creation and adoption of the Evans rule, the current path of R-Star, the future of the Fed's framework, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Charles's Chicago Fed profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Implications for the Federal Reserve's MP Framework in the Future* by Charles Evans

11 Dec 20231h 3min

Matteo Maggiori is a professor of finance at Stanford University and a returning guest to the podcast, and Jesse Schreger is an associate professor of economics at Columbia University. Matteo and Jesse, along with Christopher Clayton, have recently authored a paper titled, *A Framework for Geoeconomics,* and they join David on Macro Musings to discuss it. Specifically, Matteo, Jesse, and David also discuss the basics, core concepts, and real world examples of geoeconomics, the key elements of a global hegemon, the future of the discipline, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Matteo's Twitter: @m_maggiori Matteo's Stanford profile Matteo's website Jesse's Twitter: @JSchreger Jesse's Columbia profile Jesse's website David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *A Framework for Geoeconomics* by Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger *My Economic Statecraft Syllabus* by Daniel Drezner *A Model of the International Monetary System* by Emmanuel Farhi and Matteo Maggiori *National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade* by Albert Hirschman *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar* by Daniel McDowell

4 Dec 20231h 2min