GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?

07:29 - Signs of weakness?

09:31 - The key indicators of weakness

12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?

15:26 - Assessing the savings rate

17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy

20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?

22:00 - Challenges in the banking system

24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind...

Avsnitt(907)

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and F...

28 Jan 1h 3min

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent res...

24 Jan 1h 1min

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are join...

21 Jan 54min

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and ...

17 Jan 59min

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he...

14 Jan 1h 7min

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shi...

10 Jan 1h 8min

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal...

7 Jan 1h 5min

SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or j...

3 Jan 1h 3min

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