What Many Economists (and I) Got Wrong About This Economy

What Many Economists (and I) Got Wrong About This Economy

One of my New Year’s resolutions for 2024 was to do more episodes with people who think I'm wrong about something. For example, I've done several episodes about how the U.S. economy is doing much better than most Americans think. Today’s guest says my analysis (and that of many economists and economic commentators) is missing something big. Official inflation measures do a poor job of capturing the effect of higher interest rates. When a home goes from $200k to $220k, that’s a 10 percent increase in the value of the home. But, with higher rates, the monthly cost of living in that house with a mortgage might go up 300 percent. The same is true for financing a new car with higher interest rates. Or paying credit card debt. Judd Cramer, an economist who teaches at Harvard University, is the coauthor of a new paper on how our inflation data doesn't properly account for skyrocketing interest rates—and why the so-called "vibecession" isn’t as much of a mystery as we think. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Judd Cramer Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Plain English BEST OF: The Antisocial Century

Plain English BEST OF: The Antisocial Century

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you...

9 Dec 20251h 8min

Plain English BEST OF: How to Be Happy and the Science of Cognitive Time Travel

Plain English BEST OF: How to Be Happy and the Science of Cognitive Time Travel

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you...

2 Dec 20251h 5min

A Grand Unified Theory of Cultural Stagnation

A Grand Unified Theory of Cultural Stagnation

One of my favorite theories about the modern world is the idea that culture is "stuck." Whether the decline of ornamentation in modern architecture, or the fact that every corporate logo looks the sam...

25 Nov 202558min

The American Math Crisis

The American Math Crisis

The University of California San Diego is one of the best public colleges in America. So it was fairly shocking when the school released a report on the steep decline in academic preparedness of its f...

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How Superintelligent AI Could Upend Work and Politics

How Superintelligent AI Could Upend Work and Politics

Many AI experts believe that some time in the next few years, we will build something close to artificial general intelligence (AGI), a system that can do nearly all valuable cognitive work as well as...

18 Nov 202558min

Everything Is Television

Everything Is Television

Sometimes, the perfect guest to discuss your own writing is ... you. On this special crossover episode, I am interviewed by Ben Smith and Max Tani of Semafor's Mixed Signals podcast about my recent es...

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Are Young People Screwed?

Are Young People Screwed?

Youth unemployment is rising. Hiring is freezing up. The housing market is a mess. How did things get so bad for young people in the economy? And are things as bad as they seem? Michael Batnick and Be...

12 Nov 202552min

The Democrats Have a New Winning Formula

The Democrats Have a New Winning Formula

This week was a straight flush for Democrats. Zohran Mamdani completed his heroic arc to become mayor of the world’s most important city. Democrats ran up huge margins in the big governor races in Vir...

7 Nov 20251h

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