IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson

03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?

05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk

09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?

11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm

15:15 - The new area of tightness

18:27 - It is all about labour cost

23:46 - The deflationary power of technology

26:46 - The outlook of the labour market

32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness

39:38 - What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?

43:26 - The difference between existential and tactical crises

46:56 - Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt

52:04 - Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Avsnitt(912)

IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu

IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu

China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial str...

1 Okt 20251h 3min

SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer

SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer

Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behav...

27 Sep 20251h 7min

UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev

UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking t...

24 Sep 202541min

SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver

SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver

Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpa...

20 Sep 20251h 2min

ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson

ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson

Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clari...

17 Sep 20251h 3min

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerp...

13 Sep 202555min

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a differ...

10 Sep 20251h 4min

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic ...

6 Sep 20251h 11min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

framgangspodden
badfluence
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-svart-marknad
rss-borsens-finest
avanzapodden
uppgang-och-fall
svd-tech-brief
rss-dagen-med-di
fill-or-kill
lastbilspodden
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
dynastin
24fragor
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
rss-den-nya-ekonomin
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
borsmorgon
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet