Contrasting Ukraine and Myanmar

On February 1st, 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing orchestrated a military coup in Myanmar. On February 24th, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized missiles and airstrikes as the first blow in his invasion of Ukraine. On today’s show, two very experienced and highly credentialed international relations experts compare and contrast these two crises: Hunter Marston, who speaks to the situation in Myanmar, and Emily Channell-Justice, who addresses the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As neither Ukraine nor Russia are signatories to the International Criminal Court, Emily notes that it is up to the ICC to pursue its own charges. In Myanmar, Hunter explains that it is unlikely that the junta will own up to its genocide charge; he adds that the NUG might possibly cooperate with any investigation. Neither Russia, Ukraine, nor Myanmar have signed on to the Rome Statue of the International Criminal Court, which defines genocide and other crimes against humanity.

In terms of international organizations, Ukraine is neither a member of the European Union nor NATO, although both were immediately supportive following the Russian invasion. As for the situation in Myanmar, Hunter references the European dependence on Russian gas, saying, “I don't think any country is dependent on Myanmar's exports or its resources. But that hasn't stopped [ASEAN] from in part protecting the Myanmar military.”

Another parallel between the two conflicts is the question of negotiations. Hunter feels the military does not intend to engage in any real, constructive dialog that brings with it the possibility of losing any of their power in future elections. For her part, Emily similarly sees little reason to trust any promises made by Putin.

In terms of the international response to the respective conflicts, Emily points to the outpouring of support that has come in the way of popular support, funds, weapons, medical supplies, and more. This is, perhaps, the most jarring point of difference when contrasting the situations in the two countries. Hunter explains, “The international community, for better or worse, has not taken sides to support either the Myanmar military or the PDFs or the ethnic armed groups across the country.”