Kerre Woodham: Do the polls count for anything?

Well, good news last night for National.

Labour must be left wondering how many more election bribes they'll have to offer before voters begin to nibble. The latest Newshub Reid Research Poll that came out last night has seen National shoot up 4.3 points to 40.9%, and Labour suffered a 5.5% fall from the last Newshub poll, they're on just 26.8%.

But before gleeful right and centre right voters pull the cork on the St Emilion premier cru that you have cellared for the day those bloody socialists are booted out of office, just remember it is only a poll. And as Jim Bolger once famously said, buggar the polls.

As we've seen around the world, the pollsters were way off when it came to predicting the results of Brexit, the Trump Clinton presidential campaign, and the 2019 Australian election. And as an article in The Conversation shows, in this country in 2020, the polls immediately prior to the election overestimated the National vote and underestimated Labour’s.

They took the average of the results of all six polls published during the month before Election Day in 2020. National came out on 30.9%, Labour on 47.2%. But predictions based on the opinion polls were wrong. Labour's election result was 50%, National was not 30.9% they were only 25.6%. So the polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7. Lots of numbers, but basically, beware the polls.

Apparently we, as in Kiwis, used to be relatively forthright when it came to answering questions delivered by pollsters. We'd happily pin our colours to the mast and let complete strangers know our political preference. Not anymore.

Social media has fragmented opinion and challenged what truth is like nothing else, according to Murray Campbell, the New Zealand Research Associations Polling Spokesman. People are also careful about protecting their privacy. They're less willing to share their political viewpoints when contacted by total.

Add to that the difficulties of reaching people when landlines have all but disappeared. And door knocking isn't really an option because of the growing number of people living in apartment buildings or when homes are heavily protected by security.

So do the polls count for anything?

Well, they must do, and they must re-energize the party faithful if you're National or dampen and quash the spirits of those who are working for Labour. Certainly, in my electorate in Northcote, the party faithful for National have been out in full force. All blue jacketed, waving their signs, waving gleefully at the Onewa turnoff onto the motorway, happy as clams. Haven't seen a single person in a red shirt.

So it certainly gives a fillip to exhausted campaigners when you see a boost in the polls. But does it mean that Christopher Luxon will be thinking well, that's that then. Time to ease back, jobs done? He will not. The show is not over until the votes are counted. Election Day is the only poll that matters.

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