Andrew Dickens: Don't underestimate Winston Peters in coalition talks

Once again, thanks to MMP, we're back in a state of suspension and waiting for the conclusion of coalition talks. Which for all the parties' claims- are barely progressing.

And I think it's important for our collective sanity that we concentrate on what we know, rather than all the ifs, buts, maybes and reckons which we might imagine to be the case.

What is it that we actually know? We know that National and ACT and NZ First are willing to form a coalition, and that's pretty much it so far.

The big thing we need to do now is to get the three to meet. Now what we know about that was revealed in Winston Peters' only interview thus far, with Sean Plunket- which was held on Friday.

And he said two things- he said that all three parties should meet together at the same time. Not National-ACT, then National-NZ First, then ACT-NZ First. All three, at the same time, in the same room.

We can also presume that based on his telephone tag with David Seymour this weekend, he would like all of that to happen face to face. No-one on the phones, no-one on the conference call- all three walk into the room at the same time.

His other thing that he said in the interview was that the nuts and bolts of the coalition deal should be negotiated by chiefs of staff, and not by the leaders.

Now, those two ideas came out first thing on Friday. I mentioned this to Chris Bishop. And I actually think they're good ideas.

I think the leaders should be seen entering the same room, just to show that they're seriously considering a strong, stable, united Government. At the moment, I don't even know if they're in the same city.

And this is all so important that a phone call really isn't enough to nail it.

The other thing I feel is that NZ First is afraid of being thought of as an afterthought. Tacked on to the end of a National-ACT agreement. They feel they're just as important as the other two players.

Numerically smaller, but without them- there will be no Government.

Winston Peters believes he's an equal to the other two leaders. In fact, comparing his experience to the other two, he'll probably consider himself their superior. And his standing needs to acknowledge that, because we all know he has an ego.

Leaving the chiefs of staff to thrash it out is a good idea too, it means the leaders don't get sucked into all these arguments about minor details and hate each other. Then at the end of the day, they all gather for a symbolic signing- it's all how international treaties are negotiated.

All the chiefs of staff do it, and then the Presidents and Prime Ministers gather together to shake and wave.

So far on those two ideas mentioned- first thing on Friday, there's been no movement from National. I asked Chris Bishop about party talks on Friday, he says it's too soon to discuss.

All the other debates about what jobs the various MPs get in the coalition are still way down the track, which is why I didn't believe Andrew Williams' earlier claims on Mike Hosking.

Now, the really important thing in this whole process is not to underestimate Winston Peters. It's not his first rodeo, he's a lawyer. And he may not have started his own business, but he started his own party.

He hired all the staff, he chose all the candidates, he did all the branding, he made all the ads and got finance for the whole thing- that's a big job, and he's been the master of the rat king needed to be a political leader since he entered Parliament 45 years ago.

Don't underestimate Winston Peters.

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